Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Rowsus

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Sorry if this has already been asked.
Between Coniglio, Redden & Libba who do you think will have the best start to the season/best average over say the first 6-8 games?

Thanks in advance, have a good season, regards Rob.
I'm not a Redden fan. My order would be Coniglio, Libba, Redden. The first 2 are some chance to fill an ok M8, and I don't rate Redden much chance to do that.
You have a good season too, Rob. Row.
 

Darkie

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Darkie,
the players in that awkward $200-$300k area I could entertain picking are:
CEY, Bonner, McCartin, Ellis & Brown C.
Everybody not starting Danger should have at least some sort of plan as to how they reach him. Trying to get there through Rookies commits 3 of your better Cash Cows to the process, so having a Stepping Stone plan, particularly a high-ish priced Stepping Stone, seems like the best plan to me. Coniglio would appear to be the highest priced Stepping Stone available for such a thing, and to my mind it sets a reasonable expectation on his returns. I say go for it!
Thanks very much Row ... I will do some digging!
 
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Hey Rows,

Have you looked at Parker at all?
Seems well priced but his scores can be erratic.
I keep looking at Parker, Cripps and Coniglio as that last mid spot I have
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rows,

Have you looked at Parker at all?
Seems well priced but his scores can be erratic.
I keep looking at Parker, Cripps and Coniglio as that last mid spot I have
Hey Slammer,
4 days ago all 3 were in my team, so I think at their respective prices, they all represent some use.
Parker being a Round 14 bye might seem awkward for some, so if it is a toss up, maybe one of the other two fit your purposes better.
As to who PITs the best, that's a really tough one, but I'll say, with no authoritative confidence: Parker, Cripps, Coniglio.
Good luck, whichever way you jump.
 

SC FANATIC

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First time on SCS in almost two years, thank god Rowsus is still around. The oracle and the best forum poster I have ever witnessed in my life. Just posting here to show my appreciation
 

Rowsus

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whats your view on Shane savage?

has been proven that he can easily be tagged out of games but the Montagna points have to go somewhere and he is a good chance potentially

and whats your view on toby mclean?
sorry jarrad_, I somehow skipped over 2 questions.
Savage is one of the hardest to determine this pre-season. Has he turned a corner, with his end of season form, and JLT series? Or, is it a mirage, waiting to trap us. Certainly the departure of Montagna opens a door, but outside of that change, you would think his scoring patterns are pretty set. Every year the JLT throws up some traps, and history also suggests he's a trap, so I will be going without him.

Toby McLean plays for the Bulldogs, and I just think their game structure makes it hard to take any of their players, other than their Defs. I have no doubts he will score well in periods, but will also have his down periods. I'm just not confident enough that his good periods will make up enough ground on his down periods. If I was starting him, and he started in better than anticipated form in the first 6 or 8 weeks, I'd be looking to move him on, if his B/E got too big. I won't be starting him, either.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

Not many sleeps until the start of the season now and while most of my team is set (I think), I am really struggling with that D3 position. I have Hibberd and Lloyd at D1 and D2 and am currently looking at a highly speculative pick in Weitering. He smashed us in JLT2 with his strong intercept play and good ball use however he had some absolute stinkers last year playing D7 with scores of 22 and 19 last year (yikes).

It is very difficult to pick a breakout contender but feel that with Docherty out Carlton will count on his leadership and class even more.

Do you have any thoughts on Weitering? I don't have many speculative picks and with one like Weitering you either live or die by the sword - he is awkwardly priced but for some reason feel more secure having him at D3 than McGovern or a rookie in a 6-0-2 structure.
Hi Woodsey,
sorry, I seemed to have jumped your question too.
First let me say, I don't think Docherty missing has much affect on Weitering, in SC terms. They are totally different players, with different roles.
I think Weitering's greatest drawback, in SC terms, is that he'll be required to play tall lock down Def roles in some games, and they are SC poison. It doesn't have to happen too often, and it ruins your SC season average. I think McGovern, even though he is priced quite a bit higher, will turn out to be a better pick.
 

Rowsus

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First time on SCS in almost two years, thank god Rowsus is still around. The oracle and the best forum poster I have ever witnessed in my life. Just posting here to show my appreciation
Welcome back, SC F. Thanks for the kind words. :)
 
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Hi Woodsey,
sorry, I seemed to have jumped your question too.
First let me say, I don't think Docherty missing has much affect on Weitering, in SC terms. They are totally different players, with different roles.
I think Weitering's greatest drawback, in SC terms, is that he'll be required to play tall lock down Def roles in some games, and they are SC poison. It doesn't have to happen too often, and it ruins your SC season average. I think McGovern, even though he is priced quite a bit higher, will turn out to be a better pick.
thanks for your reply above

on this post wouldn't Carlton play plowman as the tall lockdown instead would make more sense i.m.o anyway
 
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Hi string, thanks for the kind words, and welcome to posting.
I have a "simple" structure I use for team selection. The first part of the structure is: "Choose your Captain strategy, and the players required for it first".
I decided when the prices were first released, that I would be starting without Dangerfield this season. As you can imagine, I'm not happy that most people are being pushed off him now too. Anyway, my Captain strategy this year is: Sloane, Mitchell, Martin.
Why? It's pretty simple actually. Using 130 as a desirable VC score to lock in, and 105 as a "Oh well" fall back Captain score, I then looked at who scored the most 130+ scores in 2017:
15 Dangerfield
9 Sloane
8 Martin
(then followed Docherty, M Crouch, Kreuzer on 6)
I then looked at who scored the most 105+ scores in 2017:
19 Dangerfield
18 Mitchell
17 Martin
(then followed Oliver, Zorko and Adams on 15)
So once I decided to roll without Danger, I've got the 2 players most likely to give me a 130+ score, based on last years scoring, and the 2 players most likely to give me at least 105+ score, as a fall back Captain. Martin just happened to be in both categories.
He wasn't picked because I think he fits into some sort of SC description like: "It's, Danger, Martin ..... then daylight". It was just recent history, and my Captain strategy. Having said that, I'd still be tempted to start him, if he wasn't in my Captain strategy, because he scores so well at the MCG, and Richmond have a fairly favourable early draw.
It certainly could be worth skipping on him. He started 2017 slowly (159, 118, 155 - but then 54, 92, 93, 87), so there is nothing to say he won't do the same this year.
Rowsus,

Some questions on your captain strategy:
1/. How does "chasing last years points" factor into your captain strategy?
2/. Have you done any research on how many of the top 130+ point scorers back it up the next year?
3/. Same a point 2 with 105+ point scorers?
4/. Why do you select 3 players for your Captain Strategy?

This is probably one area I need to focus on as I spend a lot of time on breakout players, rookies, bye structure, starting premiums, etc. and tend to just go with my gut on trading and captains.

Thank you for all your wonderful posts.

CC
 
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Hi Row,

Another quick one re: SC draft. I drafted R Clarke as a smoky defender with my last pick in a 12-man/22 player draft. Maynard though has now become available. Do I make the switch? How do you see them both for this season? Maynard with some extra pre-seasons under his belt, though Clarke with potentially more importance to the North midfield?
 

Suits

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thanks for your reply above

on this post wouldn't Carlton play plowman as the tall lockdown instead would make more sense i.m.o anyway

Without trying to hijack Rowsus' phenomenal thread, Plowman was more used on taking opposition smalls last year, and did well in the role.

For the talls, it'll be Jones taking the #1, with Marchbank being used on the #2 most times. Weitering on face value should be opponent-less a lot of the time, and that'll lead to some big scores. However, my biggest concern with Weitering is Bolton's affinity to changing things up and rotating down back. There will be games where Weitering is used more as a lock down and games where he goes close to 30 touches, all in the aim of boosting his development. I think this will overall mean he'll fall short as a keeper, and probably go mid 80s at best.
 

Abad

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G'day Row,
With news Gary torched training on the weekend I'm back considering the little master. Having a bloke average 135 as a POD (and captain choice) could be a masterstroke, however there's I just reckon there's no way he's gonna play close to 22 games. I was wondering if you reckon there's merit in picking him knowing that at some stage he's gonna go down injured and will require a trade. Do you reckon it'd be worth having him if he pumped out 135 for say 8 rounds then required a trade due to injury? Would love your thoughts on all things Gary!
 
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G'day Rows,

I think you mentioned this before but what price do you classify as a good fit for a stepping stone?
I have been looking at CEY, JOM and Riley Bonner.
Would you think CEY and JOM (risky but to avearge 90 and make 100K would be ok) however still wouldn't get you to a fallen Danger or Martin etc.
Do you have any opinion on Riley Bonner? Maybe a little easy to use Bonner as a stepping in the backline but I do not know much about him.
Don't really have much to go on other than the fact he looked ok in JLT and Pittard is out for 5 weeks.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

Not many sleeps until the start of the season now and while most of my team is set (I think), I am really struggling with that D3 position. I have Hibberd and Lloyd at D1 and D2 and am currently looking at a highly speculative pick in Weitering. He smashed us in JLT2 with his strong intercept play and good ball use however he had some absolute stinkers last year playing D7 with scores of 22 and 19 last year (yikes).

It is very difficult to pick a breakout contender but feel that with Docherty out Carlton will count on his leadership and class even more.

Do you have any thoughts on Weitering? I don't have many speculative picks and with one like Weitering you either live or die by the sword - he is awkwardly priced but for some reason feel more secure having him at D3 than McGovern or a rookie in a 6-0-2 structure.
Hi Woodsey,
sorry, I seemed to have jumped your question too.
First let me say, I don't think Docherty missing has much affect on Weitering, in SC terms. They are totally different players, with different roles.
I think Weitering's greatest drawback, in SC terms, is that he'll be required to play tall lock down Def roles in some games, and they are SC poison. It doesn't have to happen too often, and it ruins your SC season average. I think McGovern, even though he is priced quite a bit higher, will turn out to be a better pick.
thanks for your reply above

on this post wouldn't Carlton play plowman as the tall lockdown instead would make more sense i.m.o anyway
Without trying to hijack Rowsus' phenomenal thread, Plowman was more used on taking opposition smalls last year, and did well in the role.

For the talls, it'll be Jones taking the #1, with Marchbank being used on the #2 most times. Weitering on face value should be opponent-less a lot of the time, and that'll lead to some big scores. However, my biggest concern with Weitering is Bolton's affinity to changing things up and rotating down back. There will be games where Weitering is used more as a lock down and games where he goes close to 30 touches, all in the aim of boosting his development. I think this will overall mean he'll fall short as a keeper, and probably go mid 80s at best.
No hijacking involved Suits. I encourage others to put in their opinions here, especially one like this from a supporter of the team in question.
Your answer sort of matches mine, but was put more eloquently put, and explained better.
As you said, Weitering will have some good scores at times, but will be rotated into non-SC friendly roles in others. This will happen often enough to keep his SC average below satisfactory Keeper level.
Well, at least in the opinion of Suits, and myself. :)
 

Rowsus

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Rowsus,

Some questions on your captain strategy:
1/. How does "chasing last years points" factor into your captain strategy?
2/. Have you done any research on how many of the top 130+ point scorers back it up the next year?
3/. Same a point 2 with 105+ point scorers?
4/. Why do you select 3 players for your Captain Strategy?

This is probably one area I need to focus on as I spend a lot of time on breakout players, rookies, bye structure, starting premiums, etc. and tend to just go with my gut on trading and captains.

Thank you for all your wonderful posts.

CC
CC,
the Captain strategy and selection is probably the second most important part of the game, behind trading. The difference between good picks and bad picks can be as much as 400-500 points by seasons end.

130+ scores in 2012:
Ablett 12 - in 2013 Ablett was 2nd with 10.
Tuck S 10 - dropped right off the map, but no one expected him to back up his 2012.
Beams 9 - only played 7 games in 2013
Watson 9 - in 2013 Watson was =8th with 5.
Dangerfield 8 - in 2013 Danger was =6th with 6
Pendlebury 8 - in 2013 Pendles was 3rd with 9.

130+ scores in 2013:
Selwood 11 - 2014 3rd with 9
Ablett 10 - 2014 1st with 11
Pendlebury 9 - 2014 =4th with 6
Swan 7 - injury affected in 2014, fell to 1
Griffen 7 - fell to 2

130+ scores in 2014:
Ablett 11 - only 6 games in 2015, 2 of them 130+
Rockliff 10 - had 4 from 16 games in 2015
Selwood 9 - =9th with 5
6 players equal 4th on 6

130+ scores in 2015
Goldstein 10 - had 2 in 2016
Hannebery 8 - =8th with 5
Deledio 7 - 0 from 11 injury affected games
Fyfe 7 - 2 from 5 games
Dangerfield 7 - 1st with 12
Jacobs 7 - only 1 in 2016

130+ scores in 2016
Dangerfield 12 - 1st with 15
Selwood 7 - 4 in 2017
Gawn 7 - 1 from 13
Pendlebury 7 - 4 from 17

I haven't done the 105+'s, as he key to the strategyis the higher score, not the lower one.
While it doesn't appear that too many backed it up the next season, if you look at most of the ones who didn't, they're not players you'd be choosing in a starting Captain strategy. I put Rucks into the category too.

I selected 3 players, as I was trying to combat those with Danger, in case Danger took off. It actually only gives me 3 loopholing options:
Sloane into Martin
Sloane into Mitchell
Martin into Mitchell

I'm not saying you can't, or wouldn't trial other combos, just under what they were chosen for, there is only 3.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus. Thoughts on Tim Taranto? Any chance for a breakout year?
Hi Mudflap,
awkwardly priced at $365k, and nothing I have seen has convinced me this is the year for him.
hold off, and remember him for next year maybe.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Row,

Another quick one re: SC draft. I drafted R Clarke as a smoky defender with my last pick in a 12-man/22 player draft. Maynard though has now become available. Do I make the switch? How do you see them both for this season? Maynard with some extra pre-seasons under his belt, though Clarke with potentially more importance to the North midfield?
Hi MC,
unless Melbourne gets more injuries, Maynard might be borderline best 22, where as Clarke should have ok JS. I'd stick to Clarke.
 
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