Opinion Player X vs. Player Y

[pizza safety]

Yeah he did start last year a little bit slowly but the year before he averaged 130 odd up until the bye. Will undoubtedly be cheaper at some point but that’s potentially a lot of points to miss out on for 10 weeks.

How do you feel about Cogs this year mate? You seem to be in the market for a budget M5 and I would have thought he’d be in the mix to fill that Zerrett spot.

Yeah fair enough - the other concern was he did play a little bit more time on the wing early in that year when they had all of their inside mids in the side at the same time, I still reckon Kelly with his best preseason in a while can match him for points and almost will - but then he could easily get injured and I'll be down a trade. Ideally I have Oliver and Macrae and it just depends on the balance of my entire side and where I can draw money from.

Not that keen on Cogs compared to Zerrett or Yeo beneath the Oliver price, just because Cogs had that knee injury last year and I only really trust Jkelly to rise above that incredibly packed midfield. He's also an injury risk in general and Zerrett has a more stable scoring history and is also younger. Zerrett has gone 111, 109, 104 if you take concussion game and 105 the past four years and has missed just one game in that time. Last year he also played a game with a head knock in r16 and another game with a virus in r1, both which reduced his average. I know you can do that for a lot of players, but it's worth noting and I think 110 is very much within reach for him. Cogs did average 108 if you take out that 0 so he's underpriced as well and a good pick at that price, but I just don't like his injury history and couldn't bring myself to pick him.

 

[pizza safety]

Yeah he did start last year a little bit slowly but the year before he averaged 130 odd up until the bye. Will undoubtedly be cheaper at some point but that’s potentially a lot of points to miss out on for 10 weeks.

How do you feel about Cogs this year mate? You seem to be in the market for a budget M5 and I would have thought he’d be in the mix to fill that Zerrett spot.

I found these two posts that are very relevant on Macrae and his slow start to last year:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1146226434240733185

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1215415554023907329

I do think Macrae would be pushed out to a wing before Dunkley with Wallis and Libba back, but only so often, and he should not be pushed forward more often than Dunkley.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

D.Smith v J.Steven

 

[pizza safety]

D.Smith v J.Steven

Depends on practice games and preseason a hell of a lot

 

[Darkie]

Macrae & Merrett

Vs

Josh Kelly & Oliver

Prefer Oliver to Zerrett. There’s little reason why Kelly can’t outscore Macrae, especially with a full preseason, but you have to prepare yourself for a possible injury and a trade, which is worth a lot of points in itself.

Exactly. Option 1.

 

[Darkie]

D.Smith v J.Steven

I feel like Smith is the safer pick and that's why I have him. I'm probably more confident in trying to back a bounce back from a physical injury than mental health issues, and Smith's role seems to be less uncertain and likely one we know he can score well in.

 

[Ironhawk]

D.Smith v J.Steven

I asked this one previously (post 158) and the one response favoured Smith over Steven. I was probably thinking the same, but it's hard to know with Steven being at a new club.

 

[lipsunited]

I know preseason will tell us more but if u had to guess now... Rowell vs Bonar?

 

[Ironhawk]

I know preseason will tell us more but if u had to guess now... Rowell vs Bonar?

Rowell. Haven't seen him play, but isn't he meant to be as good/better than Walsh? If so, it's an easy decision.

Bonar looked decent in the NEAFL, but that is very low standard compared to AFL from what I understand. I'm always a bit hesitant with players at new clubs, but he should be able to get more of a chance at the Roos.

 

[pizza safety]

I feel like Smith is the safer pick and that's why I have him. I'm probably more confident in trying to back a bounce back from a physical injury than mental health issues, and Smith's role seems to be less uncertain and likely one we know he can score well in.

By the sounds of it Smith is having a really good preseason, the best he's had for four five years according to him. There's an article he wrote explaining how he's had some kind of injury issue since 2015 and how he's worked his way through those injuries.

He might be in the best knick this year that he's been in for some time and contrary to what a lot of people are saying he will get solid midfield minutes if he's healthy, especially in the second half of last year our midfield lacked pressure and our midfield lacked endeavour.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...e/news-story/e0af8d18db015e00f828ff51b82f2d02

 

[lipsunited]

J Steven and D smith vs heeney and Rowell

 

[Ironhawk]

J Steven and D smith vs heeney and Rowell

It is too early to call how good Rowell will be at AFL level, so it's hard to make an accurate comparison here.

I prefer the gun/rookie combo to two mid pricers generally for risk reasons, so probably Heeney/Rowell for me. Steven/Smith is a bit riskier - I wouldn't be surprised to see them have the better combined average, both have had good seasons previously, but they could just as easily burn you, with both missing a lot of last season.

 

[Grundogging]

It is too early to call how good Rowell will be at AFL level, so it's hard to make an accurate comparison here.

I prefer the gun/rookie combo to two mid pricers generally for risk reasons, so probably Heeney/Rowell for me. Steven/Smith is a bit riskier - I wouldn't be surprised to see them have the better combined average, both have had good seasons previously, but they could just as easily burn you, with both missing a lot of last season.

The problem with Heeney is that he is heavily under-priced if Horse throws him into the midfield and almost certainly over-priced if he is thrown more up forward.

The Buddy knee injury increases the risk of the latter happening early on in the season as Heeney is Longmire's security blanket up forward, which probably makes him an upgrade target for mine, not a starter.

There are some tricky questions up forward with a range of players potentially looking like top 10 prospects , albeit with a much lower bar in terms of average this year than we had last year, and a lot of them coming with some (or a lot of) risk.

 

[pizza safety]

Exactly. Option 1.

I think I prefer option 2. If Oliver outscores Zerrett by 5-10 points per game that’s 110-220 points for the year. I see JKelly’s injury risk as automatically deducting about 70 points from him as an option vs Macrae but I think he will average within 3 points of Macrae with a lot of upside (136 points between them both). A trade is worth 100-150 as far as I can tell but sometimes they are worth nowhere near that much if your team is flying or you've been lucky with injury or had had no correction trades, and sometimes they are worth far more than that. I don't mind gambling on JKelly.

Obviously Macrae and Oliver is the ideal combo

 

[pizza safety]

J Steven and D smith vs heeney and Rowell

I think I prefer option 1 if both look very good in preseason, otherwise option 2.

Jack Steven carries a number of risks and I think we're all failing to look at. My concerns are the following:

- He has been spoken of by the club as playing a mid-forward role. In the past when picking mid-forwards I've always picked guys who were going to get a jump in midfield time - so if I knew that they were played 55% midfield and had 4 clearances per game the year prior with x number of contested possessions, disposals and tackles I could project how those numbers and scores would increase with more midfield time. With the coaches and preseason predicting a jump in midfield time I'd pick them and once they got moved to more midfield time contested possessions, clearances, disposals and tackles would go up. This is how I picked Devon Smith, Tim Kelly and Travis Boak as starters over the past two years. Jack Steven seems to me to be this in reverse if he's playing a 50/50 mid-forward role. He has always been a full time midfielder until last year, but his last two season averages in 2017 and 2018 as a midfielder were 90 and 94. He has scored better than this in the past but given he's turning 30 can we expect something better than 94? There's reasons to suggest that he'd average more than 94 as a pure mid this year but I don't necessarily know if we can expect that. I want him playing pure mid, otherwise my thinking tells me he averages mid 80's as a mid-forward.
- He's said he's coming from a long way back in terms of fitness this preseason so it's unknown if he'll be fit enough to play much midfield time.
- He got traded for pick 57 in the draft, my question is why did the saints let him go so cheaply even if he did want to go for mental health reasons, they should have been able to get more for the player.
- He averaged 74 last year from 7 games but 6/7 of those teams missed the 8 and the other team was Essendon. His early scores were ok when he was playing a reasonable amount of midfield time early on but they dropped off when he was played more forward.

That said as a pure midfielder I can see Steven scoring very to close to 100 if he's healthy and in a better spot mentally than he's been in for some time, and it's possible he can also score in the 90's as a mid-forward if the same thing is true.

 

[Feerits Elf]

He got traded for pick 57 in the draft, my question is why did the saints let him go so cheaply even if he did want to go for mental health reasons, they should have been able to get more for the player.

If I take a lollipop from a baby it doesn't necessarily follow that the lollipop is in some way defective.

 

[pizza safety]

If I take a lollipop from a baby it doesn't necessarily follow that the lollipop is in some way defective.

Not necessarily but did you ever see a player get traded for a pick that low and average premium numbers the next year ? Not saying he’s defective just saying it raises suspicion that he’s not worth much at the moment.

 

[Feerits Elf]

Not necessarily but dic you ever see a player get traded for a pick that low and average premium numbers the next year ?

The question presupposes that I expect premium numbers from Steven in 2020.

 

[pizza safety]

The question presupposes that I expect premium numbers from Steven in 2020.

Well that was my original point

 

[Feerits Elf]

I don't disagree with your original point though!