Good to have one of my favourites throw up the first question for 2020.
I'm well, thank you, and hope you are too. Not sure I'm well rested, but I'm psyching myself up for another interesting season ahead!
Now that BBL is all but over, it's time to get serious about SC!
Docherty $436,100 - 2019 0/0, - 2018 0/0, - 2017 22/115, - 2016 22/109
Coming off 2 knee reco's and priced at 80, which means he roughly has to score at 88+ to rise in price.
The main area his high scoring came from was intercept possessions and long accurate kicking. both are SC gold. He had a DE% of around 80% in his 2 most recent seasons, which is elite for if you're a Midfielder, but "hoped for" from Defs. The difference he had a K:Hb ratio of 2.2:1 in those seasons. A long kicking, prefers to kick than handball, efficient disposal, with intercept possessions. That's the perfect SC Defender. The question is, is he still that player, and have Carlton restructured enough to change his role? My answer is, no, he's not still that player, and yes, Carlton have restructured. So does this rule him out as a good pick? No it doesn't rule him out, as he only needs to average around 96 to be a good pick. Personally, I'd be surprised if he can go 22/100+ this season. When you think of players to have come back from double ACL's in recent time (Liberatore, NicNat are two obvious one) none have returned to their previous level. For this reason, and the fact that he is already priced at 80, Docherty doesn't seem like a must start to me. He's very unlikely to get out of reach, as he's very unlikely to go on a consistent 110+ rampage.
Roberton $260,400 - 2019 0/0, - 2018 4/69, - 2017 22/93
Heart problems mean they will be more cautious with him, than any other player on their list. Priced at 48, so he's just an expensive Rookie. Probably needs to average 75+ and play 8+ games for you to get your value out of him. Sounds easy, but it might not be that simple. In 9 seasons of AFL football he has bettered those marks twice, and equalled them twice, which means 5 times he missed it, and this was before the heart problems. Given we usually get a little spoilt for Def Rookies, I'd be inclined to let him go. If he cranks out some good scores, and gets a big negative B/E, then jump on, but until that happens, I'd just put him to one side.
Doedee $273,700 - 2019 1/56, - 2018 20/82 (6 x 100+, 5 x 82-91, 9 x 79 or less)
Did a knee around 1/4 time in Round 1 last season. Young players that have an ACL are 5 to 7 times more likely to have another ACL reco, than players that haven't had one. Not always the same knee, either. (source:
https://www.afl.com.au/news/42640/how-knee-double-trouble-mystifies-the-medicos ). Priced at 50, he needs to average high 70's for at least 8 games to be a good pick this season. Another one that presents as an expensive Rookie type. I really think you'd only entertain starting him, if you either were of the opinion he could consistently push into the 80+ area, or if we are lacking base level Def Rookies. At the moment, I'm not sure either of those apply. Like Roberton, if he presents with a big negative B/E, then consider jumping on him, outside of that, look elsewhere.
Mitchell $630,900 - 2019 0/0, - 22/129, - 22/119
Still has a cloud over him, priced at 116, so hasn't really got a huge discount on him. Look at him this way. In 2018 he opened in price at $653,500, and it wasn't until Round 21 that he would have cost you at least $50k more than his opening price. During that time, he bottomed out at $575,900 in Round 9. That was in a season where he averaged 129! I think you'd be crazy to start him, as there are just too many questions to be answered, and you don't want any questions on players that cost $600k+!
Smith $335,800 - 2019 7/69, - 2018 22/98
Priced at 62, so he's priced right in that trap zone. He needs to score at close to 90 to be a worthwhile pick, and if he does that, you probably keep him sitting at F6, hoping he might push it up to a genuine Keeper level. Coming back from surgery for chronic knee problems, as opposed to ACL like most of the above. I'm a bit worried his 2018 season peaked with the "first season at new club" factor kicking in. Some players experience this, then quickly drop back to previous levels. Only 8 Fwds scored 1800+ points for the season last season, the lowest since SC started. If that trend continues, you'd probably take a 20/90 season from Smith as a win. To my mind, that won't be the case this season, and we are probably looking for 95+ to be a good Fwd Keeper again this season. The word "chronic" worries me, and he probably gets managed, if he gets through the season. I'd be more inclined to go without him, but I guess we wait and see his role/form in the pre-season.
I'd be happy if I can construct my team without any of them. Depending on the pre-season form I might find a spot for Docherty or Smith (in that order), but would be happy to wait and see if the others can produce something, that makes them hard to skip!
