Position Forward Discussion

[donnybuang]

My most successful years have been picking a couple of fallen elite guys in that price range and backing them to bounce back, to the point where I am for it each time... They're definitely missing this year, which doesn't bode well for me.

TMac. Was 2019 just a case of the Dees being awful or is he missing Hogan?

 

[Deeman1]

TMac. Was 2019 just a case of the Dees being awful or is he missing Hogan?

IIRC TMac had a injury interupted PS before 2019 and suffered for it most of the year (as did MFC). I don't think it had anything to do with Hogan leaving

 

[donnybuang]

IIRC TMac had a injury interupted PS before 2019 and suffered for it most of the year (as did MFC). I don't think it had anything to do with Hogan leaving

I suppose Hogan was on the wing a bit in 2018 anyway. Now, is Petracca and TMac too many Dees in one fwd line? ???

 

[Deeman1]

I suppose Hogan was on the wing a bit in 2018 anyway. Now, is Petracca and TMac too many Dees in one fwd line? ???

I think that depends on how you think Melbourne will go this year and whether they bounce back or not.

FWIW, I have Petracca nearly locked, but haven't decide between TJ or TMac as F3 ?

 

[dlanod]

TMac. Was 2019 just a case of the Dees being awful or is he missing Hogan?

Not a mid.

He also concerns me just because his KPF role.

 

[Blue Dragons]

It is a good point re the tackles record. I did have similar concerns on Titchell when he broke the disposal record for 118SC, but then he went 130 odd SC the following season so was still a good starting (probably the exception though).

If Devon was priced at 500k, it would be a fair enough reason not to start him but at 335k, those sort of risks are already priced into his discounted starting price. 90-95 would be a huge win at his price, I’m expecting 95 as I think he will get similar mid time to 2018.

Yeah that's a good point it's hard to see too much downside at his price so even if I think low 90s it will still be a win.
Thanks mate!

 

[Connoisseur]

Would it be the end of the world if you ended up with Smith as floating mid/fwd cover for the back half of the year for $330k?

Not at all and is a severely underrated aspect of the selection. I’d be quite happy with high 80’s from him if he manages to play the majority of the season due to the flexibility/cover offered in the mid and fwd lines. Hopefully that manages to be the case to help alleviate the potential cash generation concerns this season.

 

[Bomber18]

FWIW as well, I have a copy of the 2019 propectus which states that in 2018, Devon Smith spent a career high 61% game time in the midfield (which also meant he spent 39% in the forward line).

 

[Bomber18]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...4w4hufr58DCvohYqds4uXoWBo/edit#gid=1286550292

Essendon's setup from the Marsh 1 CBA spreadsheet was quite interesting to follow.

-Parish consistently had around 50%-60% of the CBAs and had minimal time on the wing. According to the Prospectus 2020, Parish was only in 24% of the CBAs in 2019.
-Zaharakis was used as a half fwd and not on a wing.
-Langford looking like taking Zaha's position on the wing with Langford not in any CBAs.
-McGrath in the CBAs in the first 3 qtrs before returning to his more usual position on the wing in Q4.
-Ham used consistently on a wing for the entire game.
-DSmith was used mainly on a wing in Q3 and in the CBAs in Q4. To be frank, I'm not sure if he's usually used on a wing, would've thought he'd be used in the CBs normally.

I'm a little more positive on Parish's prospects after looking at these stats further, CBAs seem to be pushed up to 50-60% (from 24% in 2019) and Langford seems to no longer be in there (pushed to a wing). D.Clarke also doesn't seem to be in Essendon's plans.

Will be interesting to see if Parish's CBs are as consistent as this in Marsh 2. Could be a chance to push a 100 average with the right inside midfield role.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...4w4hufr58DCvohYqds4uXoWBo/edit#gid=1286550292

Essendon's setup from the Marsh 1 CBA spreadsheet was quite interesting to follow.

-Parish consistently had around 50%-60% of the CBAs and had minimal time on the wing. According to the Prospectus 2020, Parish was only in 24% of the CBAs in 2019.
-Zaharakis was used as a half fwd and not on a wing.
-Langford looking like taking Zaha's position on the wing with Langford not in any CBAs.
-McGrath in the CBAs in the first 3 qtrs before returning to his more usual position on the wing in Q4.
-Ham used consistently on a wing for the entire game.
-DSmith was used mainly on a wing in Q3 and in the CBAs in Q4. To be frank, I'm not sure if he's usually used on a wing, would've thought he'd be used in the CBs normally.

I'm a little more positive on Parish's prospects after looking at these stats further, CBAs seem to be pushed up to 50-60% (from 24% in 2019) and Langford seems to no longer be in there (pushed to a wing). D.Clarke also doesn't seem to be in Essendon's plans.

Will be interesting to see if Parish's CBs are as consistent as this in Marsh 2. Could be a chance to push a 100 average with the right inside midfield role.

who loses when Heppell back?

 

[Bomber18]

who loses when Heppell back?

We won't know for sure until the real season starts. But I personally have a feeling that Heppell will play a bit more behind the ball this season as fitness wise he's very underdone. Prospectus had an interesting comment on him: "Heppell did most of his work behind the play, averaging the second most intercept possessions of any centre bounce midfielder".

 

[freowho]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...4w4hufr58DCvohYqds4uXoWBo/edit#gid=1286550292

Essendon's setup from the Marsh 1 CBA spreadsheet was quite interesting to follow.

-Parish consistently had around 50%-60% of the CBAs and had minimal time on the wing. According to the Prospectus 2020, Parish was only in 24% of the CBAs in 2019.
-Zaharakis was used as a half fwd and not on a wing.
-Langford looking like taking Zaha's position on the wing with Langford not in any CBAs.
-McGrath in the CBAs in the first 3 qtrs before returning to his more usual position on the wing in Q4.
-Ham used consistently on a wing for the entire game.
-DSmith was used mainly on a wing in Q3 and in the CBAs in Q4. To be frank, I'm not sure if he's usually used on a wing, would've thought he'd be used in the CBs normally.

I'm a little more positive on Parish's prospects after looking at these stats further, CBAs seem to be pushed up to 50-60% (from 24% in 2019) and Langford seems to no longer be in there (pushed to a wing). D.Clarke also doesn't seem to be in Essendon's plans.

Will be interesting to see if Parish's CBs are as consistent as this in Marsh 2. Could be a chance to push a 100 average with the right inside midfield role.

I hope that spreadsheet pops up after Marsh 2.

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...4w4hufr58DCvohYqds4uXoWBo/edit#gid=1286550292

Essendon's setup from the Marsh 1 CBA spreadsheet was quite interesting to follow.

-Parish consistently had around 50%-60% of the CBAs and had minimal time on the wing. According to the Prospectus 2020, Parish was only in 24% of the CBAs in 2019.
-Zaharakis was used as a half fwd and not on a wing.
-Langford looking like taking Zaha's position on the wing with Langford not in any CBAs.
-McGrath in the CBAs in the first 3 qtrs before returning to his more usual position on the wing in Q4.
-Ham used consistently on a wing for the entire game.
-DSmith was used mainly on a wing in Q3 and in the CBAs in Q4. To be frank, I'm not sure if he's usually used on a wing, would've thought he'd be used in the CBs normally.

I'm a little more positive on Parish's prospects after looking at these stats further, CBAs seem to be pushed up to 50-60% (from 24% in 2019) and Langford seems to no longer be in there (pushed to a wing). D.Clarke also doesn't seem to be in Essendon's plans.

Will be interesting to see if Parish's CBs are as consistent as this in Marsh 2. Could be a chance to push a 100 average with the right inside midfield role.

Very in-depth stuff you're putting out over the last few days Bomber, loving the break downs and explanations.

 

[Hasnoshoes]

Can someone who already knows the answer save me some research as to why Parish's game count looks so bad?

 

[Juzzo]

Any Saint supporters or anyone else keen on starting Gresh, massive POD 2%? I would expect him to up his average by 10 or so and maybe in to the top 5 or 6 forwards this year.

 

[Juzzo]

Can someone who already knows the answer save me some research as to why Parish's game count looks so bad?

Not hideous. Don't know about the missed games.

 

[Rockydunlop]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...4w4hufr58DCvohYqds4uXoWBo/edit#gid=1286550292

Essendon's setup from the Marsh 1 CBA spreadsheet was quite interesting to follow.

-Parish consistently had around 50%-60% of the CBAs and had minimal time on the wing. According to the Prospectus 2020, Parish was only in 24% of the CBAs in 2019.
-Zaharakis was used as a half fwd and not on a wing.
-Langford looking like taking Zaha's position on the wing with Langford not in any CBAs.
-McGrath in the CBAs in the first 3 qtrs before returning to his more usual position on the wing in Q4.
-Ham used consistently on a wing for the entire game.
-DSmith was used mainly on a wing in Q3 and in the CBAs in Q4. To be frank, I'm not sure if he's usually used on a wing, would've thought he'd be used in the CBs normally.

I'm a little more positive on Parish's prospects after looking at these stats further, CBAs seem to be pushed up to 50-60% (from 24% in 2019) and Langford seems to no longer be in there (pushed to a wing). D.Clarke also doesn't seem to be in Essendon's plans.

Will be interesting to see if Parish's CBs are as consistent as this in Marsh 2. Could be a chance to push a 100 average with the right inside midfield role.

Unbelievable stats my friend, much appreciated!

 

[NT.Thunder]

Any Saint supporters or anyone else keen on starting Gresh, massive POD 2%? I would expect him to up his average by 10 or so and maybe in to the top 5 or 6 forwards this year.

I think the changes to the bye make some of these selections a little more risky, I'm probably going to dump Houston and if he's going okay pick him up to run throught the byes, same for any other Saints/PA players that show promise.

 

[Kidult]

TMac. Was 2019 just a case of the Dees being awful or is he missing Hogan?

missing out on having the 2nd defender yeh will still dominate half a dozen games just whether he scrapes a 50-70 in others

 

[Kidult]

I think the changes to the bye make some of these selections a little more risky, I'm probably going to dump Houston and if he's going okay pick him up to run throught the byes, same for any other Saints/PA players that show promise.

i can see houston gettin alot less midfield minutes when wines comes back combo that with rockliff and boak CBA's