Position Ruck Discussion

[Kidult]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1237670855049543680

That to me just says Schache will be the chop out or Trengove will play somewhere in the lineup

 

[Kidult]

Probably a mix of things. The biggest factor I imagine is that Rucking is physicaly brutal - you have the biggest player in the team, clashing into the other biggest player on the park around 60 times a game. The body can't take the strain (especially when you're that tall) - and combined that with the added attention you receive as the 'premium' ruckman, and the fact that 200cm bodies would just in general struggle to put 22 games every year together at a high level, and it all adds up.

Brodie has really bucked the trend, but his X-Factor is his marking / link up possession play- he's basically an extra mid (and simply a freak of an athlete)

Grundy has a background in martial arts or wateva it is so his body and mind are different

 

[Kidult]

Well, its not like Witts had had a lot of help at GC the last couple of years...

i think witts will be a beast post bye with the cohesion they will build on his HTA

 

[armesy]

Grundy v English (Part 2)

As suggested its not just rucking that we may be able to use Grundy as a bit of guide for English. Looking at time on ground and disposals might be a guide. Although recognising Grundy's somewhat freakish abilities in this area, you have to moderate English's ceilings in these areas.

View attachment 16443

English already showed a good tank last year but has probably got almost another 5 minutes average playing time before he peaks (soon). As his body has built up we can expect more possessions from contested and uncontested marks and disposals overall. It is probably slightly optimistic but a 15 disposal average for him in 2020 may not be out of reach as he attends more ruck contests and rests in the forward line a bit more.

This is really interesting stuff mate. That's a great visual. Cheers.

Its something i had thought about as i was very tempted to pick Grundy going into his 3rd year but didn't have the guts to pull the trigger. I really want to pick English but can't bring myself to do it.

 

[NT.Thunder]

This is really interesting stuff mate. That's a great visual. Cheers.

Its something i had thought about as i was very tempted to pick Grundy going into his 3rd year but didn't have the guts to pull the trigger. I really want to pick English but can't bring myself to do it.

I like English and ROB, but English Round 1 against Grundy makes it tough.

 

[Zagbag]

I like English and ROB, but English Round 1 against Grundy makes it tough.

Why? Wouldn't it be much better he plays Grundy in round 1, than literally any other round?

 

[NT.Thunder]

Why? Wouldn't it be much better he plays Grundy in round 1, than literally any other round?

yeah that's true actually, score will only go through once so you're 100% right.
I've changed a few things around though just looking at early match-ups as I think we won't get far into the season before they knock it on the head. What that will mean I don't know but I'll do my best to be at the pointy end early.

 

[Leroy]

Grundy v English (Part 3)...and I'll bring back Gawn for this.


So. the hardest bit to last and where your input helps. What is his SC avg trajectory now look like. As you can see from Grundy and Gawn (and English is still very young) it's not a simple linear pattern but there are some patterns.

Now, if English's rucking scores go up by 15-20% (mainly from more contests attended) and his disposal count rises by at least as much, I think a Supercoach average of 100 this year is not out of the question. I know he's got a tough start against Grundy and he's yet to play a full season...

Let's look at the trends....(for this one I aligned the years of similar progression rather than calendar years)
View attachment 16445

We all know English's progression is coming, but will it be a breakout this year, a consolidation before a bigger breakout next year. Either way it is based on the assumption will one day be a premium if not a super premium ruck. I think the data points to at least a mini-breakout this year for English and I've had a stab at him averaging just over 100. Big call I know, what do you think?

Do these graphs help. Obviously they are easier to do for ruckmen and there's not many of them with a clear trajectory. The only other rucks I've really considered are NicNat, Ceglar and Naismith whose patterns (and game counts probably rule them out) and Jacobs and Goldstein. Particularly Jacobs ruck attendances per game dropped last year (one game especially with O'Brien) and if he reverted to type he would have a massive upswing. I think I might do one more on the dinosaurs and compare Jacobs and Goldstein. Unless there are any other requests?

The question is, if you think English will get to 100 ave over the season (assuming we even have a season), will he do that smoothly, or pootle along at 80 before cashing in as a fit ruck post byes?

It was well documented by someone previously that certain rucks have a huge 20+ point bump post bye when teams are forced to field non-rucks because of injury, or rucks tire out. Interesting to hear your thoughts.

 

[Blades]

The question is, if you think English will get to 100 ave over the season (assuming we even have a season), will he do that smoothly, or pootle along at 80 before cashing in as a fit ruck post byes?

It was well documented by someone previously that certain rucks have a huge 20+ point bump post bye when teams are forced to field non-rucks because of injury, or rucks tire out. Interesting to hear your thoughts.

Good point/question Leroy.

Even if he makes the 100 average, I think you are right , he is likely to negative split. Saying that, I don't think he will get as much 'second half of the year dividend' as the Monsters (Gawn and Grundy) and others (O'Brien, Goldy) got late last year, simply because he's not as big (to throw his weight around against smaller rucks). In fact this is probably the first year he won't get monstered as much himself. At a stretch you could even argue he might do OK early because he's fit and ready to go but might have some bad games later in the year as he tires because he is still so young.

So, no I'm not really expecting a 100 average after round 1 or even befoe the byes. But this is also because he plays Grundy straight up and Gawn before the bye as much as anything. It is probably a potential weakness in starting him thinking you might upgrade at or just aftger the byes. To get his benefit, you probably need t him as keeper and hope he is consistent and maybe even plays more often than someone like Gawn. (and use the additional funds wisely.

 

[Diabolical]

With 17 games and talk of shortened quarters, does Nic Nat become the biggest beneficiary of the changes?

 

[Kidult]

With 17 games and talk of shortened quarters, does Nic Nat become the biggest beneficiary of the changes?

Not if they play 3 or 4 games in 15-20 days. For me it may suit some1 like Jackson at Melbourne gettin some actual ruck time and for a potential better cash cow

 

[Toothless Tigers]

Does playing 17 games help or hinder Jacobs (GWS)

 

[Kidult]

Does playing 17 games help or hinder Jacobs (GWS)

All depends if the game gets a suspended break a few weeks in and if he is in form to not get dropped for Mumford/Briggs

 

[Kidult]

Is Grundy gonna have enough time to get his disposal's up as he relies more on his points around the ground? for example he had 73 hitouts in rd 18 and scored 157 Points...

 

[Nathan]

Is Grundy gonna have enough time to get his disposal's up as he relies more on his points around the ground?

His % relative to total game disposal shouldn’t change. Unless there is eveidence that he excelled late in qtrs.

 

[Kidult]

His % relative to total game disposal shouldn’t change. Unless there is eveidence that he excelled late in qtrs.

Yeh just going off my own views of seeing grundy go from 80/90 pts at 3qtr time to 140+then 5 or so pts for scaling. I think the gap between Grundy and Gawn and the rest of the rucks will b fairly slim just on my gut feel.

 

[Bomber18]

~95 minute games seem to be the one rule change that clearly favours NN more than anyone else hmm.....

 

[madmunza]

~95 minute games seem to be the one rule change that clearly favours NN more than anyone else hmm.....

Agreed, but he may still only play 60% of game time who knows. What if they play 2 games in 5 days will he get up?

 

[Zagbag]

~95 minute games seem to be the one rule change that clearly favours NN more than anyone else hmm.....

Would be the easiest pick in the world, if there wasn't talk of a truncated schedule. He'll be rested for sure, I'm not sure his PIT average will stand up, even if he does go at 115-120

 

[NT.Thunder]

Agreed, but he may still only play 60% of game time who knows. What if they play 2 games in 5 days will he get up?

30 trades, just trade him not the end of the world or handcuff B.Williams to him or run a RF in the forward line.