Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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lappinitup

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The simple answer is yes, jump on them. You only need to "save" 2 trades across the whole season (or conversely, use no trades in the very last Round), so there's really no reason not to grab the Rookies with the best B/E's.
interesting Row.

Similar theory for me, however attacking different way.

Had king in my forwards bench, as was happy with the slow burn and hope for a nice few games around trade time. However with Sturt knocking up a ton on bench as emergency, think I will sack king and bring in a Mahoney type.

Take the points wherever I can! Short season and points are crucial. As trades aren’t as crucial, having one less playing rookie may not hurt as much. Especially if round 2 is in July - who knows what selection looks like then!
 

Rowsus

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interesting Row.

Similar theory for me, however attacking different way.

Had king in my forwards bench, as was happy with the slow burn and hope for a nice few games around trade time. However with Sturt knocking up a ton on bench as emergency, think I will sack king and bring in a Mahoney type.

Take the points wherever I can! Short season and points are crucial. As trades aren’t as crucial, having one less playing rookie may not hurt as much. Especially if round 2 is in July - who knows what selection looks like then!
Hi lapp.
Totally agree with that move!
While dollars are nevessary, points are king!
 
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Hi Rowses

Hope your well mate. What's the best method to fortify your house ? And easiest diy self defence implement that can be made from household objects. Asking for a friend.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowses

Hope your well mate. What's the best method to fortify your house ? And easiest diy self defence implement that can be made from household objects. Asking for a friend.
Hi ScoFree,
You don't need to fortify it. Just put up a sign:

"Person with Covid 19 inside"

and no one will come near your house!
 
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I think the site might benefit from some wise words from the oracle in regard to Jack Viney and Jeremy Howe.

I think the case for each is reasonably obvious however their seems to be some selective blindness going on in respect of the case against. I would be curious to know how you see it.
 

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Good afternoon Rowsus,

what is the the most expensive a player has been?
Grundy currently @ $705k & a BE of 90 could be on his way to the most expensive player ever.
Afternoon Hot Shame,
To the best of my knowledge, the highest price in SC has been Gary Ablett's $772,500 in Rnd 9, 2010.
He opened the season at $744,200 and his scores went: 127, 128, 157, 145 - which saw his price DROP to $722,300.
From there he went: 171, DNP, 203, 102 -which saw his price rise to $772,500.

Keep in mind, the pricing model has evolved, so the highest price of Ablett is not comparable to the early days.
Consider Jonno Brown, 2005.
Opened $449,800 and scored 230, 134. Under what we know today, his B/E would appear to be in the area of -106.
His next score was only 56, but with todays eyes, we would be looking at a rise of around $70k. He dropped $20,700!
His next score was 77, and he went up $26,200!!! So we can see, it seems a bit haywire, and obviously wasn't done under a 3 round average. That being the case, it is impossible to compare the prices of a different era.
After that 77, Brown scored: 190, 147, 130, 164. After the 130, his price hit $589,800 - BUT after the 164 his price DROPPED again, to $559,800!
All rather confusing!
 

Rowsus

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I think the site might benefit from some wise words from the oracle in regard to Jack Viney and Jeremy Howe.

I think the case for each is reasonably obvious however their seems to be some selective blindness going on in respect of the case against. I would be curious to know how you see it.
I must admit, I'm a bit bemused every season, how people knee-jerk to early monster scores. We all remember the Westhoff example!
Coming off a 101 season, he scored 149 in Round 1, and people were already scrambling to see how they could get him in. History shows us his next 4 games averaged 41, and he only scored 3 more 100+'s for the season.
The first thing I have to acknowledge is, that we are facing an unprecented scenario this season, and we are still learning how the shorter game will affect things going forward. In my mind, we will see more polarised scoring in a shorter game. More 140+ scores, but also more sub 50 scores too. We saw 8 x 150+ scores in Round 1. No 140-150's, and 6 x 130-140's. To compare, in 2019 in Rnd 23, there were 9 x 150+ scores. 2 Rounds with 6 x 150+ scores, and only a handful of Rounds with more than 4. The average was close enough to 3 x 150+ scores per Round. It should be noted, there is a trend for there to be more higher scores in the last Round or two of the season. I think this is due to 2 factors. More players struggling through with niggles, leaving greater opportunity for those that are 100% fit. Also, there must be a bit of a "tune out" factor for teams that can't make the finals. Even if they're playing at 90%, it still leaves a greater opportunity for their opposition to record 150+ scores.
At the other end of the scale, in Round 1 this season there 77 sub 50 scores, compared to only 66 in Round 1 last season.
More high scores, more low scores.
This means we have to expect our Prems will have a greater variance in their scores. We need to not be so quick to chop them on the back of a bad score or two, unless we can see a reason that will continue. Chances are they might bounce back with a big variance in the other direction, sometime soon. It also means our Rookies and Stepping Stones are more fragile. With that in mind, unless you are really confident in your Stepping Stone, you need to keep them as cheap as possible, as that gives them the more upside potential. Also keep in mind, there is a difference between a Stepping Stone, and a potential cheapish Keeper. One you took with the plan of trading out, the other you hoped to hold.

Jack Viney
$439,300 - score 186 - BE -19. recent history: 21/81, 7/92, 18/90, 21/97, 16/92
The trick to things like this, as always, is to set reasonable expectation. Viney's 5 seasons leading into this season averaged out at 17/90. Now, Viney was certainly revved to play a big Round 1. He had just lost the Captaincy, and was motivated to "show 'em I'm still the man". How long does that motivation carry forward? That's a question we can't answer yet. Also, looking at his stats, his 186 seems high, but I'm sure we'll be saying that a few times about several players this season. So, close your eyes. Try to forget the 186. Now with what you know of Viney's history, what would be a reasonable expectation for Viney's next 5 or 6 games? Given his highest ever is a 97 season average, I'd have been happy to give a 92-94. So lets' look at his price, if he scores 90,s or 94's or 97's from here.
90's - his price peaks at $526,300 after Round 3 for +$87,000, then starts to drop.
94's - his price peaks at $531,100 after Round 3 for +$91,800, then starts to drop.
97's - his price peaks at $534,700 after Round 3 for +$95,400, then starts to drop.
Given his historical numbers would seem to indicate his upside is +$95k, I won't be going for him, as I'd want more than that to be happy, and there's a fair chance you'll get less than that. The odds of him becoming a 17 game Keeper seem pretty slim.

Jeremy Howe
$431,900 - score 156 - recent history: 19/80, 17/92, 21/94, 20/92, 22/75
Howe's 5 season average is 20/86, and his 4 season average is 18/89. While his base level of around 92-94 would probably cut it as a D 5 or 6, at a cheap price, keep in mind, with his 156 at the front end, to end up with a 94 from here, he will only average 90 from here. Would you be happy with 90 from here? Let's look at 3 score scenarios for Howe. 88, 92 & 96.
88's - his price peaks at $496,100 after Round 3 for +$64,200, then starts to drop
92's - his price peaks at $500,900 after Round 3 for +$69,000, then starts to drop
96's - his price peaks at $505,800 after Round 3 for +$73,900, then starts to drop
The main difference between Howe and Viney, is that Howe should be looked at more as a Keeper selection, where as it's a bit optimistic to view Viney that way. The question remains, what is a reasonable expectation? His price, unless he needs replacing, is largely immaterial. His history says he will miss 2 or 3 games, and average low 90's, even with that 156 front ending his season. Given how popular he seems to be, as a trade in option, I'm willing to pass on him for now.

I'm not sure why people are getting so hepped after one good score each. Viney will likely make $70k-$90k, while giving you barely passable Mid scores, then need replacing. Howe will throw in his 40's and 50's, and miss a few games, so i'm not sure you need to break your neck to get him in either.
 

lappinitup

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While you're on a roll Row, thoughts on sidewaysing the likes of Bont, Dunks to Danger, Tich?

Cheers.
I think that goes for all Dogs midfielders right now - Bont/Dunks/Macrae. Not sure a lot has changed since pre round 1 mind you, so if you started with them, why are you jumping off now?

My big one is Tim Kelly - his role at WC didn't look as supercoach friendly as I would have liked!
 
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I think that goes for all Dogs midfielders right now - Bont/Dunks/Macrae. Not sure a lot has changed since pre round 1 mind you, so if you started with them, why are you jumping off now?

My big one is Tim Kelly - his role at WC didn't look as supercoach friendly as I would have liked!
I suppose Dangers's draw I am attracted to and Tich 1st game looked promising. Probably knee jerk though with extra trades this week and Dunks and Bonts low scores R1. Kelly and role, not too sure, LITS and co. may have an opinion.

Edit: Just noticed the Bullies have 3 games in 15 days, rounds 2-4, with round 4 game in Sydney.
 
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Rowsus

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While you're on a roll Row, thoughts on sidewaysing the likes of Bont, Dunks to Danger, Tich?

Cheers.
I guess the extraordinary circumstances of this season open the door for throwing all rules out the window.
Having said that, you have to ask yourself, how strong were you on Bont/Dunks when you first took them?
If it was pretty strong, then I wouldn't be changing my opinion on one games worth of info.
If it was a bit umming and aahing, then that might open the window to say "Nope, i'm correcting it".
Bont was in the last 4 or 5 players I put into my team, and it really was a case of, there weren't any other Mids I was strongly keen on. My other Mids are currently Macrae, Neale, Fyfe & Kelly. Maybe I'm justifying dropping him, but I'm currently looking at axing him, because I wasn't strong on him to begin with. If I do, I will be taking him down to a value pick (not Viney), and trying to strengthen one of my other lines.
 

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I think that goes for all Dogs midfielders right now - Bont/Dunks/Macrae. Not sure a lot has changed since pre round 1 mind you, so if you started with them, why are you jumping off now?

My big one is Tim Kelly - his role at WC didn't look as supercoach friendly as I would have liked!
T Kelly is an interesting one.
I was very keen on him before the preseason games started, and he only left my team about 5 or 6 days before kick off.
Being a Melbourne supporter, I watched that Round 1 game.
Qt 1: 7 Poss - 28 SC
Qt 2: 3 Poss - 7 SC
Qt 3: 5 Poss - 30 SC (1 goal)
Qt 4: 4 Poss - 15 SC
Scaled up from 80 to 85
After the game I remember thinking "Well, I'm glad I didn't start him, but boy I'll be keeping an eye on him!".
I think he just needs to find his feet in their game plan, and when it clicks for him, he could be that 110 player many of us thought he could be!
 

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I suppose Dangers's draw I am attracted to and Tich 1st game looked promising. Probably knee jerk though with extra trades this week and Dunks and Bonts low scores R1. Kelly and role, not too sure, LITS and co. may have an opinion.

Edit: Just noticed the Bullies have 3 games in 15 days, rounds 2-4, with round 4 game in Sydney.
3 games in 15 days is a normal draw isn't it?
eg:
play May 1
play May 8
play May 15
3 games in 15 days.
 

Rowsus

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Sunday, June 14. Friday, June 19. Thurs, June 25.
Yeah, good point. 5 day break, then 6 day break.
Not sure how that compares to other teams.
I haven't looked at the Draw, but that's a bit tougher. That's 3 games in 12 days, rather than 15.
Still they're athletes, shouldn't be a problem, individually.
 
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