I think the site might benefit from some wise words from the oracle in regard to Jack Viney and Jeremy Howe.
I think the case for each is reasonably obvious however their seems to be some selective blindness going on in respect of the case against. I would be curious to know how you see it.
I must admit, I'm a bit bemused every season, how people knee-jerk to early monster scores. We all remember the Westhoff example!
Coming off a 101 season, he scored 149 in Round 1, and people were already scrambling to see how they could get him in. History shows us his next 4 games averaged 41, and he only scored 3 more 100+'s for the season.
The first thing I have to acknowledge is, that we are facing an unprecented scenario this season, and we are still learning how the shorter game will affect things going forward. In my mind, we will see more polarised scoring in a shorter game. More 140+ scores, but also more sub 50 scores too. We saw 8 x 150+ scores in Round 1. No 140-150's, and 6 x 130-140's. To compare, in 2019 in Rnd 23, there were 9 x 150+ scores. 2 Rounds with 6 x 150+ scores, and only a handful of Rounds with more than 4. The average was close enough to 3 x 150+ scores per Round. It should be noted, there is a trend for there to be more higher scores in the last Round or two of the season. I think this is due to 2 factors. More players struggling through with niggles, leaving greater opportunity for those that are 100% fit. Also, there must be a bit of a "tune out" factor for teams that can't make the finals. Even if they're playing at 90%, it still leaves a greater opportunity for their opposition to record 150+ scores.
At the other end of the scale, in Round 1 this season there 77 sub 50 scores, compared to only 66 in Round 1 last season.
More high scores, more low scores.
This means we have to expect our Prems will have a greater variance in their scores. We need to not be so quick to chop them on the back of a bad score or two, unless we can see a reason that will continue. Chances are they might bounce back with a big variance in the other direction, sometime soon. It also means our Rookies and Stepping Stones are more fragile. With that in mind, unless you are really confident in your Stepping Stone, you need to keep them as cheap as possible, as that gives them the more upside potential. Also keep in mind, there is a difference between a Stepping Stone, and a potential cheapish Keeper. One you took with the plan of trading out, the other you hoped to hold.
Jack Viney
$439,300 - score 186 - BE -19. recent history: 21/81, 7/92, 18/90, 21/97, 16/92
The trick to things like this, as always, is to set reasonable expectation. Viney's 5 seasons leading into this season averaged out at 17/90. Now, Viney was certainly revved to play a big Round 1. He had just lost the Captaincy, and was motivated to "show 'em I'm still the man". How long does that motivation carry forward? That's a question we can't answer yet. Also, looking at his stats, his 186 seems high, but I'm sure we'll be saying that a few times about several players this season. So, close your eyes. Try to forget the 186. Now with what you know of Viney's history, what would be a reasonable expectation for Viney's next 5 or 6 games? Given his highest ever is a 97 season average, I'd have been happy to give a 92-94. So lets' look at his price, if he scores 90,s or 94's or 97's from here.
90's - his price peaks at $526,300 after Round 3 for +$87,000, then starts to drop.
94's - his price peaks at $531,100 after Round 3 for +$91,800, then starts to drop.
97's - his price peaks at $534,700 after Round 3 for +$95,400, then starts to drop.
Given his historical numbers would seem to indicate his upside is +$95k, I won't be going for him, as I'd want more than that to be happy, and there's a fair chance you'll get less than that. The odds of him becoming a 17 game Keeper seem pretty slim.
Jeremy Howe
$431,900 - score 156 - recent history: 19/80, 17/92, 21/94, 20/92, 22/75
Howe's 5 season average is 20/86, and his 4 season average is 18/89. While his base level of around 92-94 would probably cut it as a D 5 or 6, at a cheap price, keep in mind, with his 156 at the front end, to end up with a 94 from here, he will only average 90 from here. Would you be happy with 90 from here? Let's look at 3 score scenarios for Howe. 88, 92 & 96.
88's - his price peaks at $496,100 after Round 3 for +$64,200, then starts to drop
92's - his price peaks at $500,900 after Round 3 for +$69,000, then starts to drop
96's - his price peaks at $505,800 after Round 3 for +$73,900, then starts to drop
The main difference between Howe and Viney, is that Howe should be looked at more as a Keeper selection, where as it's a bit optimistic to view Viney that way. The question remains, what is a reasonable expectation? His price, unless he needs replacing, is largely immaterial. His history says he will miss 2 or 3 games, and average low 90's, even with that 156 front ending his season. Given how popular he seems to be, as a trade in option, I'm willing to pass on him for now.
I'm not sure why people are getting so hepped after one good score each. Viney will likely make $70k-$90k, while giving you barely passable Mid scores, then need replacing. Howe will throw in his 40's and 50's, and miss a few games, so i'm not sure you need to break your neck to get him in either.
