Hi Mudflap,
up to 32nd now, and within sight of the top 10, well done!!!!
I deliberately held off answering your question until the Round ended, as I was thinking the landscape could change, and it definitely has!!!
For those that don't know, you currently have 11 Prems/Keepers that have been through their byes, 8 waiting on their byes, and the wild card now sitting in your deck, Gresham out with an injury! Using Gresham, your bank, and one downgrade, you can reach Neale.
I think you need to take a BBL approach to your trading. I think you need to be aggressive. I think you need to assume we might be gifted at least 2 more trades, which might enable the top teams to not only have 18 Prems in the future best 18 of 22 Rounds, but 18 Prems that are genuine Prems, and not faux Prems, who are coming up 5 and 10 points short of the real deal!
Now, by a BBL approach I mean you need to look at Prem scores from here, and only Prem scores, and let the other scores fall where they may.
You have 11 Prems with 7 games to come, and 8 Prems with 6 games to come, giving you 77 + 48 = 125 Prem scores to come in the next 7 Rounds. For this exercise we need to ignore potential injuries, and just concentrate on the known, rather than the potential unknown. I think the AFL will try and spread the remaining byes over 3 Rounds, though circumstances might force them to 2 Rounds. Let's assume 3. That would mean we have 4 Rounds with 22 scores counting, and 3 Rounds with 18 scores counting. 4 x 22 + 3 x 18 = 142 scores to come for your season, and 125 scores to come from your Prems. So you are currently sitting with 17 scores that potentially aren't coming from your Prem/Keepers. Your Gresham replacement will eat either 6 or 7 of those 17 scores. So looking ahead in your trading, you are trying to cover 10 or 11 scores, that at the moment aren't Prem/Keeper scores.
You've done amazing job to get to where you are without Neale. Your Captain choices must have really been pretty much on point, so well done again! The question becomes, do you continue down the Neale-less path, creating a POD between you, and probably at least 95 of the top 100, or do you close that POD, and try to make ground with your current POD's (Gaff, Daniel, Short, Goldy). You are probably aware, particularly with things like the Gawn situation, that some of your POD's will be come less PODish as we go along. If you continue to bet against Neale you really need him to drop substantially in scoring. As the teams around you fill up, and become close to complete, there is less opportunity for you to cover the gap between say a Neale at M1 and a Fyfe at M1. The main reason is, if Neale continues to be a top 2 Mid scorer, you really aren't battling the Neale team's with a Fyfe, as most will have him too, you are battling them with your M6 or M7, because their will be some teams that have all of your M1-5/6 + have Neale.
The other question is, do you try and get there by avoiding the players with Byes to come. To help in that regard, I have made a table, that is based on teams that are giving up big SC scores, teams that aren't, and those somewhere in between. I have ranked their games to come as "Easy", "Normal" and "Hard". I have then assigned the "Easy" games a value of 1.1, "Normal" games a value of 1, and the "Hard" games a value of 0.9. Here is the table, sorted from easiest draw to come, to hardest draw to come.
View attachment 19857
As you can see, Neale only has 1 hard rated game to come.
The best way to use this table, is to forget about upcoming opponents, as the table factors that in, and just think about how the player looks and feels to you. For example, you might think Mitchell looks like 105 player from here, so you look up Haw, see they are 7.4, and you get that Mitchell might actually be worth 7.4 x 105 = 777 points from here. You might think Boak too is a 105 player from here, but Port have no easy scoring matches left, and Boak becomes 5.7 x 105 = 599 points from here. A 178 point difference, based on strength of Draw, and bye played/to be played.
Back to Neale. You might think Neale will "slip" to 125 from here, as he just can't keep going (can he?!). That would make Neale 6.1 x 125 = 763 points from here. Which if you thought Cripps, Merrett, or Parker could go 109 from here, they should match that output. The problem becomes, if Neale is regarded as a 145 player, which is what he has been this season so far, then 6.1 x 145 = 885 points, and suddenly you might need the player you pick instead to be a 885 / 7.2 = 123 player!
It's not an easy decision, but given your position, you are going to be facing many tough decisions, each and every game, from here to the end.
I'd probably use the Gresham opportunity, and close that negative POD against you, but I can fully understand, if your play is to continue to either bet against Neale, or thwart those around you with depth and POD's. Just remember, all the teams around you are gathering depth, and your POD's may not remain too PODish!
Good luck, I will be following you, and the others right up there from our site, with great interest!
