Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

Ironhawk

Ironhawk

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GrainFedBeef said:
This will be the balance this year. Identifying players who may have received a bump from shorter quarters vs players who may have upside, yet balanced against confidence that the player will end up top 10 in their line.

Lloyd - will be a top 3 player based on history, can he do better? if he is the same, then picking a player with upside is a better strategy. If you pick the wrong player who lets say does same as 2020 as does Lloyd, then you may need to trade if you went too cheap and player not top 10.

He hurt last year because he exceeded his 2019 levels. many felt that pain including me, however, the risk is including a player based on that. 2021 resets and we reevaluate.

Putting this thought into action, Lloyd is a luxury inclusion, has downside risk of normal quarter length, can only hurt you if he does better or you make a poor replacement choice. Therefore if I don't have Lloyd, the player I choose has to be low risk, not a 400k potential better player. Howe, Laird, Stewart come to mind. All likely top 10. Williams likely in my side, however, he is in whether I go Lloyd or not.

re Adams, will be him or a Rowell I expect, as I cannot see a 4th midfield I love outside of Neale, Olivier and Mitchell at this stage. Macrae normally there, will watch pre season, don't trust Bevo though. Potentially a Heppell at 5th mid.

Early stages and don't have SC team picker (using values I think are right from posts above), just some strategy thoughts. My focus remains GnR where possible, league orientated.

Rucks currently Gawn and Preuss. Need confidence issues for Grundy have been fixed, expect he could do better and Gawn could be worse or same, however, Gawn a more legit Capt option. Preuss becomes Grundy if value/rookies become more evident allowing a Heppell/Ziebell/Daniher to become someone cheaper.

Currently have Williams D4, Heppell M5, Preuss R2, Daniher/Ziebell F4 and 5 under this structure, 123k rookies and $70k in cash.

premiums Howe, Laid Stewart, Neale, Oliver, Mitchell, Adams, Gawn, Danger, Marshall, Dunkley.
Click to expand...
Values can be found in this post here (click where it says Beg2Differ said):

Beg2Differ said:
Team picker 2021 player data attached. Note this is tab delimited.

I have done a bit of checking to make sure I haven't got things misaligned in the conversion however if anybody notices anything that looks wrong then let me know and I will fix.
Click to expand...
 
GrainFedBeef

GrainFedBeef

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Manikato1

Manikato1

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GrainFedBeef said:
This will be the balance this year. Identifying players who may have received a bump from shorter quarters vs players who may have upside, yet balanced against confidence that the player will end up top 10 in their line.

Lloyd - will be a top 3 player based on history, can he do better? if he is the same, then picking a player with upside is a better strategy. If you pick the wrong player who lets say does same as 2020 as does Lloyd, then you may need to trade if you went too cheap and player not top 10.

He hurt last year because he exceeded his 2019 levels. many felt that pain including me, however, the risk is including a player based on that. 2021 resets and we reevaluate.

Putting this thought into action, Lloyd is a luxury inclusion, has downside risk of normal quarter length, can only hurt you if he does better or you make a poor replacement choice. Therefore if I don't have Lloyd, the player I choose has to be low risk, not a 400k potential better player. Howe, Laird, Stewart come to mind. All likely top 10. Williams likely in my side, however, he is in whether I go Lloyd or not.

re Adams, will be him or a Rowell I expect, as I cannot see a 4th midfield I love outside of Neale, Olivier and Mitchell at this stage. Macrae normally there, will watch pre season, don't trust Bevo though. Potentially a Heppell at 5th mid.

Early stages and don't have SC team picker (using values I think are right from posts above), just some strategy thoughts. My focus remains GnR where possible, league orientated.

Rucks currently Gawn and Preuss. Need confidence issues for Grundy have been fixed, expect he could do better and Gawn could be worse or same, however, Gawn a more legit Capt option. Preuss becomes Grundy if value/rookies become more evident allowing a Heppell/Ziebell/Daniher to become someone cheaper.

Currently have Williams D4, Heppell M5, Preuss R2, Daniher/Ziebell F4 and 5 under this structure, 123k rookies and $70k in cash.

premiums Howe, Laid Stewart, Neale, Oliver, Mitchell, Adams, Gawn, Danger, Marshall, Dunkley.
Click to expand...
I think the departure of Treloar potentially sets up a good year for Adams however he has never ave over 110 and his best two years (107 in 2017 and 109 in 2020) are associated with the only two times he has played a full season. He has always missed chunks of the season in other years and his scores align with that.

2016 14 games at 97
2018 19 games at 96
2019 10 games at 96

He falls into the same situation as Fyfe perhaps, which is you start him or leave him. If you start him you can ride him for as long as you can and if he gets injured then make a choice about keeping him or moving on. Hate to be in that scenario where he goes big for several rounds then you bring him in and he gets injured. And in terms of him going big I could only find one score above 138 since 2016.

I had him under consideration but since looking at his record and as I have Fyfe who is already in the start or forget category I don’t think I can have both.

Agree with you entirely that it is hard to find premium mids that you can feel comfortable with this year.
 
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