2022: AFL SC Player Discussions
- Thread starter Darkie
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Thanks for those comments - Actually I am hoping that Sydney keep Blakey as a running half-back - he started to score well there at the end of last season & I reckon he has the game to excel there. Same goes for Rioli - they're both a bit too talented for that role imo. You'd imagine Draper can improve - he's about 23-24 and only 21 games so far - has the ruck to himself & already shown enough to encourage me to slot him in.
I personally need to see him averaging at least that in the preseason and looking very good doing it.
I rate him but the reality is that if you spread his 3 good games across his 2 seasons instead of falling in one outstanding 3 week burst I'm not sure we'd really be talking about him that much, especially if he wasn't the #1 pick, which of course does matter in decision making as it is an indication of talent level. Right now he's basically Beau Muston where the couple of outstanding games are the anomaly and the other dozen utterly mediocre games are more the reality, there have been a lot of guys who manage a handful of elite games, heck James Aish had a couple of comparable games in his debut season and we all know where that ended up and he was also an elite talent.
The question is can he show that the anomaly can become a regularity and then, if he does, survive the attention that brings with it. With the other big killer of needing to stay fit while doing it.
There are way more question marks than answers on him right now. Price is very tempting though and probably comes down to how much you like the other midprice options that he would open up.
I rate him but the reality is that if you spread his 3 good games across his 2 seasons instead of falling in one outstanding 3 week burst I'm not sure we'd really be talking about him that much, especially if he wasn't the #1 pick, which of course does matter in decision making as it is an indication of talent level. Right now he's basically Beau Muston where the couple of outstanding games are the anomaly and the other dozen utterly mediocre games are more the reality, there have been a lot of guys who manage a handful of elite games, heck James Aish had a couple of comparable games in his debut season and we all know where that ended up and he was also an elite talent.
The question is can he show that the anomaly can become a regularity and then, if he does, survive the attention that brings with it. With the other big killer of needing to stay fit while doing it.
There are way more question marks than answers on him right now. Price is very tempting though and probably comes down to how much you like the other midprice options that he would open up.
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What’s interesting about Rowell is whether he can actually recreate those three games. He has stated himself that his “bat out of hell” style is not sustainable and was told to be more measured.
In two games, in 30mins of football or less he was injured twice when he had attention on him. Was he lacking confidence in those sub Rowell games or playing a different style. Can he be both measured and lift his score rating. Amongst boys it may have been fine.
Maybe preseason will tell us, although the space everyone gets could be misleading. That Brisbane vs GC game gave us misleading data on both Neale and Rowell over 2 quarters for each of them.
In two games, in 30mins of football or less he was injured twice when he had attention on him. Was he lacking confidence in those sub Rowell games or playing a different style. Can he be both measured and lift his score rating. Amongst boys it may have been fine.
Maybe preseason will tell us, although the space everyone gets could be misleading. That Brisbane vs GC game gave us misleading data on both Neale and Rowell over 2 quarters for each of them.
Yes, think I’ll be looking for 90s. Not sure the names you raised quite do his feats justice, 171 in Game 2, 141 in Game 3 and 114 in Game 4. Also had 100 in a 2020 preseaon game.
Think we can largely disregard his 2021 scores as his fitness base was compromised.
Some good signs that his fitness this preseason is tracking well
View: https://twitter.com/afl/status/1470557599087034370?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/aflcomau/status/1470992279770853378?s=21
Think we can largely disregard his 2021 scores as his fitness base was compromised.
Some good signs that his fitness this preseason is tracking well
View: https://twitter.com/afl/status/1470557599087034370?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/aflcomau/status/1470992279770853378?s=21
Aish had a 144 and 120 that, from memory, was very harshly scored, he looked the goods that first year and hasn't ever got back there.
It's more just a buyer beware on him that those freakishly good games are the rare games at this point.
I do think there is reason to diminish how much credence last year gets, he was underdone and he was playing mostly defensive roles, outright tagging a couple of times, but you have to say he was at 70% to get to a 90 and a 90 would still be awfully no man's land of a range for him where you'd need a couple of very big scores, admittedly capable, to spike his price and then you'd have to have the cajones to dump him after those games.
He's a very tough pick, imo, if he doesn't blow the preseason to pieces. Let's say he's a season behind, which I think is fair, Walsh in his 2nd season got to 98, Oliver in his 2nd season, comfortably the best I can remember, was 111. I actually think you can definitely make a case for either of those, he was in their league as a prospect, but they also played 3x as many games in those first two seasons as Rowell has managed. That's basically asking he's somewhere in between the two best players of the past decade through their first two seasons for him to be a clear winning pick (Macrae was also in that class, fwiw so not impossible). More reasonably he's probably looking towards the 85-95 window, high end is acceptable, low end is very borderline, middle depends on if he can spike the price. All would put him in the range of lower tier rookies as a pick.
I feel like I'm against him when I do like him but I do want to be blown away, I remember Walsh didn't do enough for me to pick him his 2nd season (did last year), Oliver did, fwiw. I want to see similar to what I did from Oliver. His durability is very much a concern though and needs to be strongly factored in. He's in absolute no man's land price wise if he gets hurt in the first 6 weeks basically, that range that ends up spiraling into multiple trades if it happens and he's had a terrible run with injuries so far.
Ultimately I do find it hard to say he presents better value than the Coniglio, Gresham, Rioli, Anderson, Coleman, Jackson, et al types in the forwards or backs who are similarly cheap, have similar or better durability and considerably lower requirements to be big wins.
Definitely not ruled out but I need to see a lot personally. Midfield midprice picks just have such a high requirement on them to be big wins and he's got a lot of pathways to failure popping up.
It's more just a buyer beware on him that those freakishly good games are the rare games at this point.
I do think there is reason to diminish how much credence last year gets, he was underdone and he was playing mostly defensive roles, outright tagging a couple of times, but you have to say he was at 70% to get to a 90 and a 90 would still be awfully no man's land of a range for him where you'd need a couple of very big scores, admittedly capable, to spike his price and then you'd have to have the cajones to dump him after those games.
He's a very tough pick, imo, if he doesn't blow the preseason to pieces. Let's say he's a season behind, which I think is fair, Walsh in his 2nd season got to 98, Oliver in his 2nd season, comfortably the best I can remember, was 111. I actually think you can definitely make a case for either of those, he was in their league as a prospect, but they also played 3x as many games in those first two seasons as Rowell has managed. That's basically asking he's somewhere in between the two best players of the past decade through their first two seasons for him to be a clear winning pick (Macrae was also in that class, fwiw so not impossible). More reasonably he's probably looking towards the 85-95 window, high end is acceptable, low end is very borderline, middle depends on if he can spike the price. All would put him in the range of lower tier rookies as a pick.
I feel like I'm against him when I do like him but I do want to be blown away, I remember Walsh didn't do enough for me to pick him his 2nd season (did last year), Oliver did, fwiw. I want to see similar to what I did from Oliver. His durability is very much a concern though and needs to be strongly factored in. He's in absolute no man's land price wise if he gets hurt in the first 6 weeks basically, that range that ends up spiraling into multiple trades if it happens and he's had a terrible run with injuries so far.
Ultimately I do find it hard to say he presents better value than the Coniglio, Gresham, Rioli, Anderson, Coleman, Jackson, et al types in the forwards or backs who are similarly cheap, have similar or better durability and considerably lower requirements to be big wins.
Definitely not ruled out but I need to see a lot personally. Midfield midprice picks just have such a high requirement on them to be big wins and he's got a lot of pathways to failure popping up.
Let's try an exercise...
Here are three players' scores from R15-23 last year, average over that period in bold:
Player A (112.6): 103, 100, 102, 95, 125, 138, 91, 100, 159
Player B (107): 135, 126, 140, 88, 85, 110, 107, 89, 83
Player C (114.9): 115, 114, 106, 91, 148, 113, 120, 131, 96
I've seen lots of teams with Player B in them, one or two with A and none with C. A and B have very strong scoring history, but are arguably now both into a period of their careers where their averages trend down, not up.
Player C should play his 100th game this year and is priced over $100k less than A and B coming in to 2022.
Was Player C just a run of form or a proper 4th season breakout where it all clicked at last?
Here are three players' scores from R15-23 last year, average over that period in bold:
Player A (112.6): 103, 100, 102, 95, 125, 138, 91, 100, 159
Player B (107): 135, 126, 140, 88, 85, 110, 107, 89, 83
Player C (114.9): 115, 114, 106, 91, 148, 113, 120, 131, 96
I've seen lots of teams with Player B in them, one or two with A and none with C. A and B have very strong scoring history, but are arguably now both into a period of their careers where their averages trend down, not up.
Player C should play his 100th game this year and is priced over $100k less than A and B coming in to 2022.
Was Player C just a run of form or a proper 4th season breakout where it all clicked at last?
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Some mail I got last week was that earl doors the plan is to start Day across half back again, giving him some time to build back into things after a season and o***eason of injury troubles, before looking to push him up to a wing.
In regards to Sicily, yeah there will always be the threat of chucking him forward to clunk a mark in a last quarter type scenario, but the messaging has been pretty consistent the last few months, in that he will play defence. Mitchell made comment on it during a supporters forum style thingy a month or two ago around trade period.
In regards to Sicily, yeah there will always be the threat of chucking him forward to clunk a mark in a last quarter type scenario, but the messaging has been pretty consistent the last few months, in that he will play defence. Mitchell made comment on it during a supporters forum style thingy a month or two ago around trade period.
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hhhmmm
Gawn
Grundy
Big O
None with C, now, I think @Herbie66 had him as you always look to Herbie for some lateral thinking and also yourself.
Good pick up, has rarely been mentioned with Darcy seen as the alternative. Was there an injury to one of the fwds that changed the dynamic for Big O. The injury to Hipwood which saw Daniher less in the ruck I expect came a few rounds into his form.
Think Grundy looks a lot more popular than Gawn right now due to losing some weight, age on his side at 27 and concerns about Jackson eating into Gawn ruck time, plus over 30.
Maybe Darcy and Big O the way to go.
Gawn
Grundy
Big O
None with C, now, I think @Herbie66 had him as you always look to Herbie for some lateral thinking and also yourself.
Good pick up, has rarely been mentioned with Darcy seen as the alternative. Was there an injury to one of the fwds that changed the dynamic for Big O. The injury to Hipwood which saw Daniher less in the ruck I expect came a few rounds into his form.
Think Grundy looks a lot more popular than Gawn right now due to losing some weight, age on his side at 27 and concerns about Jackson eating into Gawn ruck time, plus over 30.
Maybe Darcy and Big O the way to go.
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Love the left field thinking, and the theatre and objectivity of the exercise!
One thing I have noted previously is the tendency of experienced/fit rucks to beat up on second string or battle weary younger opponents in the second half of the season. That would be worth flagging/perhaps looking into on the Big O.
You could argue that that should have helped Gawn and Grundy too - which is a fair point, although it can depend on when you draw, eg, a Wittsless GC or the like. Matchups are key for rucks in my view.
One thing I have noted previously is the tendency of experienced/fit rucks to beat up on second string or battle weary younger opponents in the second half of the season. That would be worth flagging/perhaps looking into on the Big O.
You could argue that that should have helped Gawn and Grundy too - which is a fair point, although it can depend on when you draw, eg, a Wittsless GC or the like. Matchups are key for rucks in my view.
Great point - matchups are definitely key. I've pulled a few out here against the stronger rucks and it's not bad reading at all.
For Big O:
R17 vs Ryder/Marshall - 106pts (Ryder 97, Marshall 95)
R21 vs Darcy - 120pts (Darcy 120)
R22 vs Grundy - 131pts (Grundy 89)
R23 vs NN - 97pts (NN goes bang for 165pts, ouch)
QF vs Gawn/Jackson - 127pts (Gawn 102, Jackson 55)
For Big O:
R17 vs Ryder/Marshall - 106pts (Ryder 97, Marshall 95)
R21 vs Darcy - 120pts (Darcy 120)
R22 vs Grundy - 131pts (Grundy 89)
R23 vs NN - 97pts (NN goes bang for 165pts, ouch)
QF vs Gawn/Jackson - 127pts (Gawn 102, Jackson 55)