2022: AFL SC Player Discussions

Darkie

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Great point - matchups are definitely key. I've pulled a few out here against the stronger rucks and it's not bad reading at all.

For Big O:
R17 vs Ryder/Marshall - 106pts (Ryder 97, Marshall 95)
R21 vs Darcy - 120pts (Darcy 120)
R22 vs Grundy - 131pts (Grundy 89)
R23 vs NN - 97pts (NN goes bang for 165pts, ouch)

QF vs Gawn/Jackson - 127pts (Gawn 102, Jackson 55)
That’s a good set of figures, thank you. I tend to think of it as being more about stripping out/dialing down the big 150+ scores against a Burgess type who is no chance to line up R1, but what you’ve shown demonstrates that Big O can score well against above average opposition, which also does the trick!
 
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Great point - matchups are definitely key. I've pulled a few out here against the stronger rucks and it's not bad reading at all.

For Big O:
R17 vs Ryder/Marshall - 106pts (Ryder 97, Marshall 95)
R21 vs Darcy - 120pts (Darcy 120)
R22 vs Grundy - 131pts (Grundy 89)
R23 vs NN - 97pts (NN goes bang for 165pts, ouch)

QF vs Gawn/Jackson - 127pts (Gawn 102, Jackson 55)
Pretty amazing numbers. When I saw the names I thought he would have been smashed. Thanks for pulling them out.

Interesting vs Melb in round 12 he had a poor score and he had a few games with lower hit outs, incl vs Freo in round 8.

Hard to see if Daniher forward due to Hipwood injury was a factor or not.
 
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Pretty amazing numbers. When I saw the names I thought he would have been smashed. Thanks for pulling them out.

Interesting vs Melb in round 12 he had a poor score and he had a few games with lower hit outs, incl vs Freo in round 8.

Hard to see if Daniher forward due to Hipwood injury was a factor or not.
I think there might be something in the Hipwood injury - Daniher was definitely offering ruck chopout early in the season and it maybe seems that Big O played a lot better when he could just grind along and attend all the contests.

That said, they did replace Hipwood with Fullarton who did some ruck relief as well, but maybe not as effectively as Daniher?
 
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There wasnt any data around those practise games either, also asked Pete at AFL player ratings and didnt seem confident it was coming 2022.

1 game of data only again. Looking back on data, players that met metrics I look for in terms of scoring rate vs price were 14, with Clarke, Sharp, Kozzie, Brockman looking to be false flags. 10/14 I thinks ok.

Jordan, Impey and Berry were missed, although I did start Impey given role. May make some adj for the $200k players who are not rookies. Jords and Berry had roles yet question marks over players coming back and not high scores in pre season games.
 
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Let's try an exercise...

Here are three players' scores from R15-23 last year, average over that period in bold:

Player A (112.6): 103, 100, 102, 95, 125, 138, 91, 100, 159
Player B (107): 135, 126, 140, 88, 85, 110, 107, 89, 83
Player C (114.9): 115, 114, 106, 91, 148, 113, 120, 131, 96

I've seen lots of teams with Player B in them, one or two with A and none with C. A and B have very strong scoring history, but are arguably now both into a period of their careers where their averages trend down, not up.

Player C should play his 100th game this year and is priced over $100k less than A and B coming in to 2022.

Was Player C just a run of form or a proper 4th season breakout where it all clicked at last?

Just adding a grain of salt for the 3 months prior to the scores you've listed:

Player A (126.5): 93, 137, 163, 135, 172, 147, 63, 112, 117, 124, 120, 138, 123
Player B (121.9): 70, 135, 162, 92, 134, 153, 144, 128, 109, 138, 76
Player C (77.7): 109, 45, 112, 53, 112, 84, 54, 71, 65, 99, 56, 72

Player C is the same age as Player B. He has been first ruck since Round 9 2020, across which 30 H+A games he has averaged 93.4, being aged 26-27 over this period.

The three best ruckman this century outside of Player A (Players D, E & F, otherwise knows as Cox, Sandilands & Naitanui), respectively scored their highest, highest, and second highest yearly averages to that point in the years that they were 30 come end of the football season, i.e. the year that player A is about to emerge on.
 
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Just adding a grain of salt for the 3 months prior to the scores you've listed:

Player A (126.5): 93, 137, 163, 135, 172, 147, 63, 112, 117, 124, 120, 138, 123
Player B (121.9): 70, 135, 162, 92, 134, 153, 144, 128, 109, 138, 76
Player C (77.7): 109, 45, 112, 53, 112, 84, 54, 71, 65, 99, 56, 72

Player C is the same age as Player B. He has been first ruck since Round 9 2020, across which 30 H+A games he has averaged 93.4, being aged 26-27 over this period.

The three best ruckman this century outside of Player A (Players D, E & F, otherwise knows as Cox, Sandilands & Naitanui), respectively scored their highest, highest, and second highest yearly averages to that point in the years that they were 30 come end of the football season, i.e. the year that player A is about to emerge on.
Nice work ;)
How about this for another spin?

In his 4th full year, Grundy played career H&A games 62-81 and averaged 97.
Big O has just played his 4th full year, H&A games 54-74 and averaged 93.

In his 5th full year Grundy averaged 130.

I'm not predicting O gets that, as Grundy's game at his peak had midfielder like disposals alongside huge hitout numbers.

Just seeing if there is a correlation around how much experience a ruck needs before they reach maximum potential.
 

Darkie

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Nice work ;)
How about this for another spin?

In his 4th full year, Grundy played career H&A games 62-81 and averaged 97.
Big O has just played his 4th full year, H&A games 54-74 and averaged 93.

In his 5th full year Grundy averaged 130.

I'm not predicting O gets that, as Grundy's game at his peak had midfielder like disposals alongside huge hitout numbers.

Just seeing if there is a correlation around how much experience a ruck needs before they reach maximum potential.
Enjoying this discussion!

If there is something to this, perhaps we should be picking Darcy as well?

He just played his 4th full season, games 42-62, and averaged 118 😱
 
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Nice work ;)
How about this for another spin?

In his 4th full year, Grundy played career H&A games 62-81 and averaged 97.
Big O has just played his 4th full year, H&A games 54-74 and averaged 93.

In his 5th full year Grundy averaged 130.

I'm not predicting O gets that, as Grundy's game at his peak had midfielder like disposals alongside huge hitout numbers.

Just seeing if there is a correlation around how much experience a ruck needs before they reach maximum potential.
I really like the big ‘O’ really high on my radar. Ave 115 from his last 9 games. Would be nice to start Darcy and him instead Gawn/Grundy like most of us have down for many of years.
 
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d to a different position under new
Can any Hawks supporters shed light on what the backline will look like next year? I'm guessing something like:

B: Sicily Hartigan Hardwick
HB: Jiath Frost Impey
Wing: Day
INT: Scrimshaw
Emerg: Bramble

Tricky to fit everyone in (although at least one will probably be injured most weeks). Worried Sicily might be flung forward, but seems unlikely that they would move their best defender out of defence.
B: Hardwick, DGB, Scrimshaw
HB: CJ, Frost, Sicily
Wing: Day and Bramble

I think Impey will rotate off the bench as a utility (can play back, wing or forward).

Perhaps Hartigan starts at FB. And will play against the monster forwards. But I think Mitchell will be keen for DGB to take over. Maybe even as early as round 1.
 
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Nice work ;)
How about this for another spin?

In his 4th full year, Grundy played career H&A games 62-81 and averaged 97.
Big O has just played his 4th full year, H&A games 54-74 and averaged 93.

In his 5th full year Grundy averaged 130.

I'm not predicting O gets that, as Grundy's game at his peak had midfielder like disposals alongside huge hitout numbers.

Just seeing if there is a correlation around how much experience a ruck needs before they reach maximum potential.
Is it age or games though?

Grundy was circa 24/25 when he made that leap.

Gawn had 26 games when he jumped to 103 from 63 and was going into his 24th year.
 
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Ruck situation definitely has you thinking the most compared to the last few years

I seem to be defaulting to Grundy - safest and presents some value - and Darcy - biggest upside if able to stay fit.

Big O under some consideration, seems to have improved his ruck craft out of sight
 

Bomber18

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Anyone (Bris supporters?) got a recollection of what happened to Berry last year? Multiple injuries? (re-injuries or different injuries?) Likely role this year? (inside mid? wing? fwd?)

Looks a decent cash cow prospect seeing his 2019 and 2020 numbers closer but game counts are a worry.
 
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Treloar is so tempting at his price, just his soft tissue injury history the last few years is a real concern.

Here is his SC history :-

Screen Shot 2021-12-21 at 11.19.02 am.png

If Bailey Smith isn't right to go at the start of the season, he could be the real beneficiary (along with Dunkley) - at 483K with Fwd/mid status he is worthy of consideration.
 
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https://aflratings.com.au/2021/12/03/2022-fantasy-isaac-heeney-role/

Isaac Heeney is set for a change in role next season, he will spend more time playing a midfield role in 2022 according to Sydney senior coach John Longmire.

With the Swans losing both George Hewett & Jordan Dawson in the off-season there are opportunities in the midfield available, Longmire outlined his plan for Heeney in an interview on Sportsday earlier this week.

When Longmire was specifically asked if Heeney could see a 50/50, 60/40 or a 70/30 midfield/forward split in 2022 he replied:

“I think that he’s probably getting up towards that.. a bit more in the midfield now.””

“He got through this season quite well,”

“At the back end of the year he was training really well & able to play games out really well.”

“He naturally keeps himself in fantastic shape, so we’ll be playing him a bit more in the midfield this year.”

“We think he can still play in the midfield & push forward, probably be about 70/30 type split.” Longmire said.

The Swans recently began their pre-season campaign, Longmire was also cautious at the length of time prior to the start of the 2022 H&A season.

“Once again it’s only the pre-season & we’ll use him where we need him, but we’d like to play him more in the midfield.” Longmire added.
Heeney averaged 15.9 Disposals, 5.7 Marks, 2.0 Tackles & 1.7 Goals from 21 games for Sydney in 2021.

Fantasy Impact: A move into more of a midfield role for Isaac Heeney would certainly provide an opportunity to increase his fantasy scoring output, he averaged 77.2pts from 21 games in 2021.

The available opportunities in the midfield & the positive outlook from John Longmire do align for Heeney, he was used at minimal centre bounces in 2021 so his 2022 role could be a mix of outside/inside midfield.

His role would be a critical watch during pre-season games, his fantasy scoring potential could easily exceed his 2021 output.

Heeney would be a strong consideration at Round 1 in season long fantasy, there will be more information available throughout his pre-season on his exact midfield role & potential centre bounce usage.

The annual conundrum about picking Heeney has started early this year :ROFLMAO:

Do we believe Horse or not.... history says no we can't but Heeney is such an elite talent he has to be considered at 454K

With Hewett & Dawson gone along with Kennedy on his last legs, you can see the opportunity for more midfield minutes is certainly there for him & it must be appealing for the swans to have another classy player joining Mills in the engine room.

Thoughts @wogitalia?
 
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https://aflratings.com.au/2021/12/03/2022-fantasy-isaac-heeney-role/

Isaac Heeney is set for a change in role next season, he will spend more time playing a midfield role in 2022 according to Sydney senior coach John Longmire.

With the Swans losing both George Hewett & Jordan Dawson in the off-season there are opportunities in the midfield available, Longmire outlined his plan for Heeney in an interview on Sportsday earlier this week.

When Longmire was specifically asked if Heeney could see a 50/50, 60/40 or a 70/30 midfield/forward split in 2022 he replied:

“I think that he’s probably getting up towards that.. a bit more in the midfield now.””

“He got through this season quite well,”

“At the back end of the year he was training really well & able to play games out really well.”

“He naturally keeps himself in fantastic shape, so we’ll be playing him a bit more in the midfield this year.”

“We think he can still play in the midfield & push forward, probably be about 70/30 type split.” Longmire said.

The Swans recently began their pre-season campaign, Longmire was also cautious at the length of time prior to the start of the 2022 H&A season.

“Once again it’s only the pre-season & we’ll use him where we need him, but we’d like to play him more in the midfield.” Longmire added.
Heeney averaged 15.9 Disposals, 5.7 Marks, 2.0 Tackles & 1.7 Goals from 21 games for Sydney in 2021.

Fantasy Impact: A move into more of a midfield role for Isaac Heeney would certainly provide an opportunity to increase his fantasy scoring output, he averaged 77.2pts from 21 games in 2021.

The available opportunities in the midfield & the positive outlook from John Longmire do align for Heeney, he was used at minimal centre bounces in 2021 so his 2022 role could be a mix of outside/inside midfield.

His role would be a critical watch during pre-season games, his fantasy scoring potential could easily exceed his 2021 output.

Heeney would be a strong consideration at Round 1 in season long fantasy, there will be more information available throughout his pre-season on his exact midfield role & potential centre bounce usage.

The annual conundrum about picking Heeney has started early this year :ROFLMAO:

Do we believe Horse or not.... history says no we can't but Heeney is such an elite talent he has to be considered at 454K

With Hewett & Dawson gone along with Kennedy on his last legs, you can see the opportunity for more midfield minutes is certainly there for him & it must be appealing for the swans to have another classy player joining Mills in the engine room.

Thoughts @wogitalia?
I'll just leave this here.....

1640065920497.png
 
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