Discussion 2022: Rookie Discussion

[NT.Thunder]

Terrible pick, sure, but it was more to illustrate how the cash generation actually works.

The point was more that if I told you Dow at 205k was going to average 55, you'd say hell no. If I told you he makes 130k, you'd be doing very well if you're not taking him. Point is that you can score very poorly in most of your games, just takes a good few weeks and you make the cash needed. Obviously if I told you it would be after getting dropped a few rounds in, you'd be back on hell no but more that the average is a very secondary thing to actually go with.

Those top picks that cost more are far more likely to get extra games, sunk cost fallacy at full play but AFL clubs are definitely going to give them exposure to try and fast track development and also to sell seats.

The trouble is with rookies, and especially the rookies in your starting team is that they need to not only generate cash, they need to do it quickly. It's hard to carry guys like Dow whi IIRC actually lost money early at one stage, maybe/maybe not (can't remember) but his $130k late in the season is problematic if you've carried him from round 1 considering he's taking up a spot from a potential $125k rookie generating cash quicker and/or providing little points on field which most would've had him on field early on.

It's easy to say that JHF will be different and I honestly thing he will be, but we all know the step up to AFL is very different and I'd imagine a 55 - 75 average is not out of the realms of possibility. Now a 75 is great but a 55 I'm not sold on.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

The trouble is with rookies, and especially the rookies in your starting team is that they need to not only generate cash, they need to do it quickly. It's hard to carry guys like Dow whi IIRC actually lost money early at one stage, maybe/maybe not (can't remember) but his $130k late in the season is problematic if you've carried him from round 1 considering he's taking up a spot from a potential $125k rookie generating cash quicker and/or providing little points on field which most would've had him on field early on.

It's easy to say that JHF will be different and I honestly thing he will be, but we all know the step up to AFL is very different and I'd imagine a 55 - 75 average is not out of the realms of possibility. Now a 75 is great but a 55 I'm not sold on.

When @wogitalia mentioned that Dow shirked a contest in a preseason game I dropped Dow from my team, who filled it, young Sharp who lasted one game and was traded early.

Your cautiousness is correct, I had question marks on Walsh and Rowell in prior seasons until I saw them in the early season games.

Rather than pick cheaper rookies or 200k players, I aim this year to pick only the players that look to have a balance of JS and scoring vs price, then backfill my team from there with premiums and $270k players where needed. Cost down only gets us so far and need to ensure we dont do two of these costs downs to upgrade a $270k player to a premium.

 

[NT.Thunder]

When @wogitalia mentioned that Dow shirked a contest in a preseason game I dropped Dow from my team, who filled it, young Sharp who lasted one game and was traded early.

Your cautiousness is correct, I had question marks on Walsh and Rowell in prior seasons until I saw them in the early season games.

Rather than pick cheaper rookies or 200k players, I aim this year to pick only the players that look to have a balance of JS and scoring vs price, then backfill my team from there with premiums and $270k players where needed. Cost down only gets us so far and need to ensure we dont do two of these costs downs to upgrade a $270k player to a premium.

I actually thought he was a bit bullish on him and may have even started him - I remember that contest and made mention of it several times here and was one of the main reasons I avoided him. It's super important for me that with rookies they need to be seen to want the ball whether that be inside and/or outside. Many rookies end up with the ball through sheer luck/bad luck at times but the better ones seek it out and put themselves in positions to accumulate and contribute.

100% correct regarding the balance between JS and scoring and price but like we've touched on it's apples and oranges between $120k & $200k rookies.

 

[jarrad_]

wonder if the suns could "steal" Jack Hayes away from st Kilda now that kings out for the year?

 

[Herbie66]

Terrible pick, sure, but it was more to illustrate how the cash generation actually works.

The point was more that if I told you Dow at 205k was going to average 55, you'd say hell no. If I told you he makes 130k, you'd be doing very well if you're not taking him. Point is that you can score very poorly in most of your games, just takes a good few weeks and you make the cash needed. Obviously if I told you it would be after getting dropped a few rounds in, you'd be back on hell no but more that the average is a very secondary thing to actually go with.

Those top picks that cost more are far more likely to get extra games, sunk cost fallacy at full play but AFL clubs are definitely going to give them exposure to try and fast track development and also to sell seats.




I've never really understood the hype on him, seems to be an SCS special or something that I don't get. It's got to be close to make or break time and, to his credit, it's a good sign he's still on the list given he hasn't played but the reality is that he's neither a KP or small defender and from what I've seen not really great in the air either for his size, so you end up with a kind of tweener defender playing for a team that has probably the most versatile defender of the last decade in Rampe already filling that hole and then has had the likes of Dawson, Mills and now Blakey to fill the secondary need for that. Cunningham is an excellent small defender. Just not a lot of spots for him.

Personally I liked him more when he was an inside midfield prospect but that has never seemed to take for him.

Be delighted to see him get games and make the most of it but I've never understood why he's been talked up as a fantasy pick to be honest.

I am sure you have been here long enough too realise many get (over) excited when they see a cheap priced rookie and have little or no understanding of if they are even remotely close to Best 22 😀

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1491924701622386689

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/piesource1/status/1491924701622386689

 

[freowho]

What's the deal with Rory Thompson? I know he's had a lot of injuries. Was he on a long contract they couldn't break?

 

[McLovin]

The trouble is with rookies, and especially the rookies in your starting team is that they need to not only generate cash, they need to do it quickly. It's hard to carry guys like Dow whi IIRC actually lost money early at one stage, maybe/maybe not (can't remember) but his $130k late in the season is problematic if you've carried him from round 1 considering he's taking up a spot from a potential $125k rookie generating cash quicker and/or providing little points on field which most would've had him on field early on.

It's easy to say that JHF will be different and I honestly thing he will be, but we all know the step up to AFL is very different and I'd imagine a 55 - 75 average is not out of the realms of possibility. Now a 75 is great but a 55 I'm not sold on.

I don't think Dow's record last season is really relevant to the premium rookie debate, he's an underwhelming player who hasn't improved at all in 4 seasons. His 20 games at 59 in 2018 is closer to the minimum we should be expecting from expensive mid rookies like Daicos and JHF, assuming they aren't badly affected by injuries.

 

[jel]

What are peoples plans for Daicos and JHF?
Are they part of your rookie cash cow play or are you keeping them for longer?
To be a succesful 1st rotation cashcow ie Rd7-rd9 sell, they'll need to average 80+ over that time.

Some excellent work from @KLo30 here: https://supercoachscores.com/thread...s-a-fine-line-between-pleasure-and-pain.2799/

 

[Manikato1]

When @wogitalia mentioned that Dow shirked a contest in a preseason game I dropped Dow from my team, who filled it, young Sharp who lasted one game and was traded early.

Your cautiousness is correct, I had question marks on Walsh and Rowell in prior seasons until I saw them in the early season games.

Rather than pick cheaper rookies or 200k players, I aim this year to pick only the players that look to have a balance of JS and scoring vs price, then backfill my team from there with premiums and $270k players where needed. Cost down only gets us so far and need to ensure we dont do two of these costs downs to upgrade a $270k player to a premium.

I actually thought he was a bit bullish on him and may have even started him - I remember that contest and made mention of it several times here and was one of the main reasons I avoided him. It's super important for me that with rookies they need to be seen to want the ball whether that be inside and/or outside. Many rookies end up with the ball through sheer luck/bad luck at times but the better ones seek it out and put themselves in positions to accumulate and contribute.

100% correct regarding the balance between JS and scoring and price but like we've touched on it's apples and oranges between $120k & $200k rookies.

Interesting how one poster on this site can have so much influence.

 

[Bermi]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1491924701622386689

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/piesource1/status/1491924701622386689

Kreuger is a couple of years older than Dean, may be ahead of him? Another couple to watch in the preseason games.

 

[Eagling]

What are peoples plans for Daicos and JHF?
Are they part of your rookie cash cow play or are you keeping them for longer?
To be a succesful 1st rotation cashcow ie Rd7-rd9 sell, they'll need to average 80+ over that time.

Hold until their bye is the most likely outcome.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

What are peoples plans for Daicos and JHF?
Are they part of your rookie cash cow play or are you keeping them for longer?
To be a succesful 1st rotation cashcow ie Rd7-rd9 sell, they'll need to average 80+ over that time.

Some excellent work from @KLo30 here: https://supercoachscores.com/thread...s-a-fine-line-between-pleasure-and-pain.2799/

Some much caution on these guys. Another NM intra game, more positive news on JHF. 80 ave is higher than whats needed I think.

70 ave gets you to $350k, however, last 5% is hard so thats $330k. However, a well timed spike game around game 5-6 would see over $350k even with a 70 average.

Others have quite rightly raised the price you pay, the return on that price and where you spend the extra money saved. however, also need to take into account probability fo the player getting to that value.

Do I think probability of those two above $300k is high, yes, $350k of value, maybe 50/50. However, Goater could be picked and I may start him, however history suggest his probability at that price is 50/50 to still be getting games after 3-4 weeks.

Interesting on that link which is very good, that Libba was seen as needing to be a keeper. I started him at $357k and made $120k from memory. Probability was high to make money, had a free option on keeper status, I thought it was ok.

Big difference between that discussion on a $350k player (which is Rowell this year) vs a $202k player.

I have always found the quasi traps to be the $275k players. Last year I went with Butts at $175k whilst many went the more expensive defensive option and whilst he had the shaky start, was an ok pick in the end.

Also, they may receive DPP benefit this year which can significant value if we can move them to def/fwd. Too often I have upgraded to a premium def/fwd due to poor quality rookies on this lines, yet the premium (Bolton, maybe a Houston for some) was fools gold. Now we can move these guys to plug the gap until the last bye. Just some thoughts.

 

[Shannon]

 

[Shannon]

Keep hearing very positive reports on Clark, promising on Chesser/ certainly need some back rookies - he has been playing both half back & wing in scratch matches.

 

[Merv Neagle]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1491924701622386689

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/piesource1/status/1491924701622386689

You would think so now

 

[Seymour Skinner]

What are peoples plans for Daicos and JHF?
Are they part of your rookie cash cow play or are you keeping them for longer?
To be a succesful 1st rotation cashcow ie Rd7-rd9 sell, they'll need to average 80+ over that time.

Some excellent work from @KLo30 here: https://supercoachscores.com/thread...s-a-fine-line-between-pleasure-and-pain.2799/

If they do manage to gain DPP I'd be hoping to hold them for as long as possible, both have the round 14 bye which is incredibly handy.

Kreuger is a couple of years older than Dean, may be ahead of him? Another couple to watch in the preseason games.

Wasn't Krueger traded in to be a Fwd at the pies?
Will Kelly also training as a fwd primarily I believe.
Looks good for Dean, hopefully manages more than just the first 4 weeks if given the nod.

 

[wogitalia]

The trouble is with rookies, and especially the rookies in your starting team is that they need to not only generate cash, they need to do it quickly. It's hard to carry guys like Dow whi IIRC actually lost money early at one stage, maybe/maybe not (can't remember) but his $130k late in the season is problematic if you've carried him from round 1 considering he's taking up a spot from a potential $125k rookie generating cash quicker and/or providing little points on field which most would've had him on field early on.

It's easy to say that JHF will be different and I honestly thing he will be, but we all know the step up to AFL is very different and I'd imagine a 55 - 75 average is not out of the realms of possibility. Now a 75 is great but a 55 I'm not sold on.

I probably shouldn't have put Dow's name to the numbers

The point is more that we look at guys and go "he needs to average 75 to work" when Dow (ignoring the timing) averaged 55 and "worked" (again, ignoring timing).

The fact that he stunk it up and got dropped is what ruined him as a pick but when he did come back he actually was able to generate cash despite the overall average.

So a guy like JHF for example could easily play the first 10 games, average 55 and make 150k still. I have significantly higher hopes on him but the point remains.

I actually thought he was a bit bullish on him and may have even started him - I remember that contest and made mention of it several times here and was one of the main reasons I avoided him. It's super important for me that with rookies they need to be seen to want the ball whether that be inside and/or outside. Many rookies end up with the ball through sheer luck/bad luck at times but the better ones seek it out and put themselves in positions to accumulate and contribute.

100% correct regarding the balance between JS and scoring and price but like we've touched on it's apples and oranges between $120k & $200k rookies.

I was and I did... Ultimately I hoped for more from him. I also talked down Cripps and took him anyway. I'd be good at this stuff if I listened to both sides of my brain and picked the correct one more often

Interesting how one poster on this site can have so much influence.

Even more amazing is my ability to talk someone else out of him and myself into him.

It's funny that someone seeing one line sees all the fault they need to avoid a player and I'm spending the rest of it convincing myself to make the mistake!

Keep hearing very positive reports on Clark, promising on Chesser/ certainly need some back rookies - he has been playing both half back & wing in scratch matches.

West also a good sign, awkward price but with a really solid role I saw enough last year to think he can score sufficiently. Would be more on the "if the rookies aren't there" path for mine than a legit "want to pick" but great to have him there.

Yeo will forever tempt me. Can't do it but oh so tempted.

 

[Bermi]

If they do manage to gain DPP I'd be hoping to hold them for as long as possible, both have the round 14 bye which is incredibly handy.

Wasn't Krueger traded in to be a Fwd at the pies?
Will Kelly also training as a fwd primarily I believe.
Looks good for Dean, hopefully manages more than just the first 4 weeks if given the nod.

With Roughead now missing 5 rounds, Kreuger might be needed down back. Kreuger said that he is prepared to play in defence. There are a number of player that will be trialed up forward, it's not a guarantee that he is a lock for the forward position.

Could Kreuger play down back?
While Collingwood has already earmarked Kreuger for a role up forward, he said he’s not afraid to be swung down back if he needs to.

One factor omnipresent in the mind of all supporters is that Jordan Roughead, who recently finished eighth in the Pies’ best and fairest, is closer to the end than the start of his career.

Roughead has been a rock at full-back ever since crossing over from the Bulldogs, but he’ll be 31 by the start of next season, and there’s no obvious replacement once he retires.

Kreuger trained as a key defender this year in a bid to make his debut, which paid dividends when he played his first two games towards the end of the season.

Getting to learn under a Hall of Fame defender like his backline coach Matthew Scarlett would only improve his knowledge and skill at playing the position as well.

Collingwood’s back six is currently in good shape, with the likes of Roughead, Brayden Maynard, and Isaac Quaynor looking to back up strong campaigns, while Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe will be hoping to get a clean run with injuries.

But if no player puts their hand up to take over for Roughead in a few years time, Kreuger could find his place in the team in defence.

AFL Trade Period: Can Nathan Kreuger fix Collingwood’s forward woes? (theinnersanctum.com.au)

 

[dlanod]

Interesting how one poster on this site can have so much influence.

Pretty sure I heard @wogitalia say that last year.