Position Forward Discussion

Which of the following is likely to end the year as one of the top averaging FWDs...? [Choose Two]

  • H Greenwood

    Votes: 35 33.0%
  • J Gresham

    Votes: 4 3.8%
  • P Lipinski

    Votes: 1 0.9%
  • B Parfitt

    Votes: 4 3.8%
  • C Rozee

    Votes: 7 6.6%
  • J Martin

    Votes: 2 1.9%
  • C Wingard

    Votes: 20 18.9%
  • TJ Lynch

    Votes: 24 22.6%
  • D Smith

    Votes: 57 53.8%
  • None of the above

    Votes: 15 14.2%

  • Total voters
    106
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The one thing that bugs me with Whitfield is his price and his historical numbers, compared to others at the same price.

Whitfield has missed 16 games the last 4 seasons and averaged 110+ once with that 110 possibly due to increased opportunity with injuries to his teammates.

Oliver has missed 9 games the last 4 seasons and averaged 110+ in 3 years. Note: the 9 missed games and missed average were in his first year.

Treloar has missed 10 games the last 4 seasons and averaged 110+ 3 times.

Now I know it’s not comparing apples to apples and is somewhat rookie reliant but it’s difficult for me to justify picking Whitfield over the other 2, even if he’s every chance to be a top 3 fwd on averages. If I was confident he’d go 110 again, it would make the decision a little easier but with the uncertainty (in my eyes) of his ability to back up, he’s my cash generator if needed.
You would hope Whitfield has learnt his lesson though and won't miss games again due to a illicit drug code breach
 
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The one thing that bugs me with Whitfield is his price and his historical numbers, compared to others at the same price.

Whitfield has missed 16 games the last 4 seasons and averaged 110+ once with that 110 possibly due to increased opportunity with injuries to his teammates.

Oliver has missed 9 games the last 4 seasons and averaged 110+ in 3 years. Note: the 9 missed games and missed average were in his first year.

Treloar has missed 10 games the last 4 seasons and averaged 110+ 3 times.

Now I know it’s not comparing apples to apples and is somewhat rookie reliant but it’s difficult for me to justify picking Whitfield over the other 2, even if he’s every chance to be a top 3 fwd on averages. If I was confident he’d go 110 again, it would make the decision a little easier but with the uncertainty (in my eyes) of his ability to back up, he’s my cash generator if needed.
Because you will be guaranteed to need Whitfield in your final side, and there's no guarantees on either of the others.
 

IDIG

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You would hope Whitfield has learnt his lesson though and won't miss games again due to a illicit drug code breach
What’s that saying, a tiger never changes its stripes...:p

With or without that suspension he seems quite injury prone anyway. If I remember correctly he missed weeks on multiple occasions last year so it just wasn’t the one bad injury but multiple minor ones (not sure what’s worse?).
Because you will be guaranteed to need Whitfield in your final side, and there's no guarantees on either of the others.
I figured that would be the main reason but I’m not sure it justifies the starting price if he averages 100 for example.

What would you consider a pass mark average and games wise out of curiosity?
 
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What’s that saying, a tiger never changes its stripes...:p

With or without that suspension he seems quite injury prone anyway. If I remember correctly he missed weeks on multiple occasions last year so it just wasn’t the one bad injury but multiple minor ones (not sure what’s worse?).
I figured that would be the main reason but I’m not sure it justifies the starting price if he averages 100 for example.

What would you consider a pass mark average and games wise out of curiosity?
If he goes at 20/99 then he’ll probably be top 3-5 forwards and scrape a pass mark.

My point is that there are half a dozen plus blokes that are capable of doing what Treloar/Oliver will do (Mid premiums are an abundant food source) and maybe only Dusty in the forwards that will match Whitfield.. which is why Whitfield is a better selection should they all all average ballpark the same.
 

IDIG

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If he goes at 20/99 then he’ll probably be top 3-5 forwards and scrape a pass mark.

My point is that there are half a dozen plus blokes that are capable of doing what Treloar/Oliver will do (Mid premiums are an abundant food source) and maybe only Dusty in the forwards that will match Whitfield.. which is why Whitfield is a better selection should they all all average ballpark the same.
Thanks mate. I probably didn’t articulate it well but I was more focusing on the points-on-field side of things and that you know what you’re getting when you spend $600k on Oliver/Treloar over Whitfield.

Good point about the abundant 110 midfield options though. I’m possibly being too points driven and not taking into account the bigger pool of discounted midfielders I’ll have access to later in the year.

Without derailing the thread, will you be starting Lloyd for similar reasons to Whitfield?
 
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After the early season carnage of Jack Darling last year, along with the up and down form of Jeremy Cameron...I am simply not going to start any KPF this year. Would rather just get rookies and players with DPP fwd/mid status.

Although I'm slightly doubtful if some of the forward rookies this year will generate a lot of cash...right now no one really stands out that you can say "yup he's gonna get me at least 200k"...
 

Tails

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After the early season carnage of Jack Darling last year, along with the up and down form of Jeremy Cameron...I am simply not going to start any KPF this year. Would rather just get rookies and players with DPP fwd/mid status.

Although I'm slightly doubtful if some of the forward rookies this year will generate a lot of cash...right now no one really stands out that you can say "yup he's gonna get me at least 200k"...
At least 200k .... might be well behind if waiting / looking for that sort of cash generation ...
 
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No talk at all about Toby Greene, and I can understand the probable reasons why. At his best he's easily top 3-4 FWD and finished last year in a blaze at 111.7 for his last 9 matches. At 26 yo has he finally reached a level of maturity that will keep his worst impulses under control on the field ? I love him as a footballer and inevitably find myself putting him in my team as a starter more often than not. You take the good with the bad when it comes to Toby but the main concern for me is his dispersion of scores. He rarely gets scores in the 90s, they are either putrid (for him) sub 90s efforts or big tons. It's never boring that's for sure but I see him as possibly a better starter than Dusty who is almost always slow off the blocks and therefore a R8-10 upgrade target. Anyone else thinking about Toby ?
 
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Greenwood looking tasty
Had a quick look at Greenwood today to see if there was anything in his stats that might give any insight (and needed a break at work tbh).
His TOG% has historically been pretty low, 71% on average 2017-2019:

1581602772085.png

His CP basically track square with the TOG (and I don't see a big reason for his CP rate to drop off much at GCS):
1581602853088.png

And his uncontested possessions have always been low (so if GCS stay low possession, that shouldn't impact him a heap, I guess):
1581602929872.png

He's always gone at around a 6 tackle per game clip (and I guess he'll be tackling his clacker off up there):
1581602991863.png

Guess it comes down to (i) can he increase TOG (ii) what will the squeeze of GCS traditionally grabbing a smaller share of points vs oppo be?

He went from being stuck in the <73% range in 2016 to a good ratio of 73-85 and even a couple of 85+% games in 2018 and even being in the doghouse in 2019 still had 5 games in the 73-85 range, so he should be capable of it.

1581603375567.png

If he can stay in that range, he's viable, he's a mid 90's average type if he gets the TOG.
1581603682267.png

Anyone who read this far must think I'm a deadset nutjob. But it only took 10 mins and it was interesting just to look at this sort of gear.
 
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Had a quick look at Greenwood today to see if there was anything in his stats that might give any insight (and needed a break at work tbh).
His TOG% has historically been pretty low, 71% on average 2017-2019:

View attachment 15576

His CP basically track square with the TOG (and I don't see a big reason for his CP rate to drop off much at GCS):
View attachment 15577

And his uncontested possessions have always been low (so if GCS stay low possession, that shouldn't impact him a heap, I guess):
View attachment 15578

He's always gone at around a 6 tackle per game clip (and I guess he'll be tackling his clacker off up there):
View attachment 15579

Guess it comes down to (i) can he increase TOG (ii) what will the squeeze of GCS traditionally grabbing a smaller share of points vs oppo be?

He went from being stuck in the <73% range in 2016 to a good ratio of 73-85 and even a couple of 85+% games in 2018 and even being in the doghouse in 2019 still had 5 games in the 73-85 range, so he should be capable of it.

View attachment 15581

If he can stay in that range, he's viable, he's a mid 90's average type if he gets the TOG.
View attachment 15582

Anyone who read this far must think I'm a deadset nutjob. But it only took 10 mins and it was interesting just to look at this sort of gear.
Sorry, but all I saw was pretty colours.

After that analysis the conclusion that I come to is that he's a 'wait n see' type, not a starter. Great effort though:cool:
 
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What’s that saying, a tiger never changes its stripes...:p

With or without that suspension he seems quite injury prone anyway. If I remember correctly he missed weeks on multiple occasions last year so it just wasn’t the one bad injury but multiple minor ones (not sure what’s worse?).
I figured that would be the main reason but I’m not sure it justifies the starting price if he averages 100 for example.

What would you consider a pass mark average and games wise out of curiosity?
This has been raised before. On raw stats Whitfield looks like he has issues staying fit and hence his games played in past few seasons look lower than you would like. However last season was his only "real" injury year (collarbone). In 2015 he played 21, 2016 he played 19 but missed a month with tonsillitis(lost 8kg) so not a real injury per se, in 2017 he played 15 but he was banned by the AFL for the first 7 games so again not a real injury and 2018 he played 22. He also had his appendix out last year.

Probably to early to label him a true injury prone player and only the future can tell if he ends up that way.
 
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No talk at all about Toby Greene, and I can understand the probable reasons why. At his best he's easily top 3-4 FWD and finished last year in a blaze at 111.7 for his last 9 matches. At 26 yo has he finally reached a level of maturity that will keep his worst impulses under control on the field ? I love him as a footballer and inevitably find myself putting him in my team as a starter more often than not. You take the good with the bad when it comes to Toby but the main concern for me is his dispersion of scores. He rarely gets scores in the 90s, they are either putrid (for him) sub 90s efforts or big tons. It's never boring that's for sure but I see him as possibly a better starter than Dusty who is almost always slow off the blocks and therefore a R8-10 upgrade target. Anyone else thinking about Toby ?
Not looking at starting him myself due to others I prefer, but I expect he is a very good chance of being a top 10 forward.

The fact I don't like him much as a player probably influences that non-selection.
 
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No talk at all about Toby Greene, and I can understand the probable reasons why. At his best he's easily top 3-4 FWD and finished last year in a blaze at 111.7 for his last 9 matches. At 26 yo has he finally reached a level of maturity that will keep his worst impulses under control on the field ? I love him as a footballer and inevitably find myself putting him in my team as a starter more often than not. You take the good with the bad when it comes to Toby but the main concern for me is his dispersion of scores. He rarely gets scores in the 90s, they are either putrid (for him) sub 90s efforts or big tons. It's never boring that's for sure but I see him as possibly a better starter than Dusty who is almost always slow off the blocks and therefore a R8-10 upgrade target. Anyone else thinking about Toby ?
Highly unlikely IMO. The number of games he misses each season is appalling and only exceeded by his appalling on field behaviour that is constantly excused as being because he is someone who "plays close to the line". For me the number of games he misses just make him impossible to start. No doubt he has enormous talent and could be a real star if he wasn't such a d***head. The real shame is that sometimes his behaviour damages his teams chances of winning games and that is a complete no no.
 
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No talk at all about Toby Greene, and I can understand the probable reasons why. At his best he's easily top 3-4 FWD and finished last year in a blaze at 111.7 for his last 9 matches. At 26 yo has he finally reached a level of maturity that will keep his worst impulses under control on the field ? I love him as a footballer and inevitably find myself putting him in my team as a starter more often than not. You take the good with the bad when it comes to Toby but the main concern for me is his dispersion of scores. He rarely gets scores in the 90s, they are either putrid (for him) sub 90s efforts or big tons. It's never boring that's for sure but I see him as possibly a better starter than Dusty who is almost always slow off the blocks and therefore a R8-10 upgrade target. Anyone else thinking about Toby ?
The good scores came with the on-ball role, prior to that he was around 80 on the year.
Can’t see him having the lucrative role with Coniglio, Ward returns, Hopper / Taranto developing further and GWS liking what he offers up forward.
Always a durability risk, the odd brainfade.
Like him, too, but seems a big risk.
 
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Had a quick look at Greenwood today to see if there was anything in his stats that might give any insight (and needed a break at work tbh).
His TOG% has historically been pretty low, 71% on average 2017-2019:

View attachment 15576

His CP basically track square with the TOG (and I don't see a big reason for his CP rate to drop off much at GCS):
View attachment 15577

And his uncontested possessions have always been low (so if GCS stay low possession, that shouldn't impact him a heap, I guess):
View attachment 15578

He's always gone at around a 6 tackle per game clip (and I guess he'll be tackling his clacker off up there):
View attachment 15579

Guess it comes down to (i) can he increase TOG (ii) what will the squeeze of GCS traditionally grabbing a smaller share of points vs oppo be?

He went from being stuck in the <73% range in 2016 to a good ratio of 73-85 and even a couple of 85+% games in 2018 and even being in the doghouse in 2019 still had 5 games in the 73-85 range, so he should be capable of it.

View attachment 15581

If he can stay in that range, he's viable, he's a mid 90's average type if he gets the TOG.
View attachment 15582

Anyone who read this far must think I'm a deadset nutjob. But it only took 10 mins and it was interesting just to look at this sort of gear.
Sorry, but all I saw was pretty colours.

After that analysis the conclusion that I come to is that he's a 'wait n see' type, not a starter. Great effort though:cool:
Good work Gutsroy. hard to interpret the charts, but looks like he is a 95-110 player if his TOG improves. Shown before he can score well, looks a real chance on top 6. will watch in preseason his TOG, thanks.
 

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Had a quick look at Greenwood today to see if there was anything in his stats that might give any insight (and needed a break at work tbh).
His TOG% has historically been pretty low, 71% on average 2017-2019:

View attachment 15576

His CP basically track square with the TOG (and I don't see a big reason for his CP rate to drop off much at GCS):
View attachment 15577

And his uncontested possessions have always been low (so if GCS stay low possession, that shouldn't impact him a heap, I guess):
View attachment 15578

He's always gone at around a 6 tackle per game clip (and I guess he'll be tackling his clacker off up there):
View attachment 15579

Guess it comes down to (i) can he increase TOG (ii) what will the squeeze of GCS traditionally grabbing a smaller share of points vs oppo be?

He went from being stuck in the <73% range in 2016 to a good ratio of 73-85 and even a couple of 85+% games in 2018 and even being in the doghouse in 2019 still had 5 games in the 73-85 range, so he should be capable of it.

View attachment 15581

If he can stay in that range, he's viable, he's a mid 90's average type if he gets the TOG.
View attachment 15582

Anyone who read this far must think I'm a deadset nutjob. But it only took 10 mins and it was interesting just to look at this sort of gear.
Very interesting stuff ... TOG upside is one of the more certain sources of SC improvement in my view, so this has me thinking - especially if I need a Heeney replacement.

The offset is how bad GC mids tend to score. One to ponder though, some of his numbers are at/close to elite levels, which is pretty impressive given the stage he is at.
 

Connoisseur

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Very interesting stuff ... TOG upside is one of the more certain sources of SC improvement in my view, so this has me thinking - especially if I need a Heeney replacement.

The offset is how bad GC mids tend to score. One to ponder though, some of his numbers are at/close to elite levels, which is pretty impressive given the stage he is at.

Career TOG Avg: 71.52%
SC avg when TOG equals/exceeds 72%: 91.16 from 25 (low of 52 and a high of 133, 5/25 below 80, 19/25 below 100, 1/25 120+)
SC avg when TOG below 72%: 79.17 from 23 (low of 45 and a high of 127, 13/23 below 80, 17/23 below 100, 1/23 120+)
 
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Had a quick look at Greenwood today to see if there was anything in his stats that might give any insight (and needed a break at work tbh).
His TOG% has historically been pretty low, 71% on average 2017-2019:

View attachment 15576

His CP basically track square with the TOG (and I don't see a big reason for his CP rate to drop off much at GCS):
View attachment 15577

And his uncontested possessions have always been low (so if GCS stay low possession, that shouldn't impact him a heap, I guess):
View attachment 15578

He's always gone at around a 6 tackle per game clip (and I guess he'll be tackling his clacker off up there):
View attachment 15579

Guess it comes down to (i) can he increase TOG (ii) what will the squeeze of GCS traditionally grabbing a smaller share of points vs oppo be?

He went from being stuck in the <73% range in 2016 to a good ratio of 73-85 and even a couple of 85+% games in 2018 and even being in the doghouse in 2019 still had 5 games in the 73-85 range, so he should be capable of it.

View attachment 15581

If he can stay in that range, he's viable, he's a mid 90's average type if he gets the TOG.
View attachment 15582

Anyone who read this far must think I'm a deadset nutjob. But it only took 10 mins and it was interesting just to look at this sort of gear.
I have so many potentially good midpriced players to squeeze into my team, that I am having trouble choosing which ones. Greenwood is one of them. The concern I have with Greenwood is that GCS Mids don't score high. Champion Data identifies Greenwood as the only elite player at GCS, so that to me says he will the most tagged each week, hmmm.

By the way, I appreciate that you summarised each graph so it made sense to me :)
 
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