Position Forwards Discussion
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Was just looking at Lobb then , not sure on the latest status with Sandi and Darcy.
I remember saying last year it would be a lot more interesting if we actually had to pick 2-3 KPF each season in our teams , instead of having all these F/M.
Apart from the obvious ones you then have the Billings , Langford , Parish , Parfitt , Gresham etc price range + Worpel , JJK , Greene , Daniher (?) and guys like Ainsworth , Cerra , Rayner could have take that big jump as well.
I remember saying last year it would be a lot more interesting if we actually had to pick 2-3 KPF each season in our teams , instead of having all these F/M.
Apart from the obvious ones you then have the Billings , Langford , Parish , Parfitt , Gresham etc price range + Worpel , JJK , Greene , Daniher (?) and guys like Ainsworth , Cerra , Rayner could have take that big jump as well.
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It’s always a concern but no one else really screams pick me at this stage and I’m not that keen to run only 2 premiums.
If Greene is named rd 1, I might get him instead but would want to see a decent showing from him in JLT2.
If I was to make a case for Mundy, (optimistically) I think he has 5 pt improvement in him because of the increased midfield time he’ll be seeing.
I’m not sure what type of split he’s seen in the last couple of years but if my memory serves me correctly he’s been M/F for at least 2 years so been spending 30% time in the fwd line the last 3. Before those 3 years he averaged 113, 102 and 104 presumably playing predominantly midfield.
He’s far from locked in my team but I’ll happily pay the extra coin over a Billings/Worpel type. He’s got good role security, especially while Blakely is also out and been pretty durable over the years. His body may have even benefited from not being in the middle the last few years so age may be less of a factor.
From a quick look over the past years when he’s had 20 something possessions he’s scored well so it’s been the quiet games fwd that has brought his average down, which theoretically gives him a discount if he doesn’t spend anywhere near as much time fwd with Hogan/Lobb there.
Essentially I think the stars have aligned nicely for him but guess we’ll have a better idea after JLT2.
If you have any stats on him @Connoisseur i would love to see them. I’d be interested to see how he goes when he has X amount of contested possession and when he hits X amount of possessions.
If Greene is named rd 1, I might get him instead but would want to see a decent showing from him in JLT2.
If I was to make a case for Mundy, (optimistically) I think he has 5 pt improvement in him because of the increased midfield time he’ll be seeing.
I’m not sure what type of split he’s seen in the last couple of years but if my memory serves me correctly he’s been M/F for at least 2 years so been spending 30% time in the fwd line the last 3. Before those 3 years he averaged 113, 102 and 104 presumably playing predominantly midfield.
He’s far from locked in my team but I’ll happily pay the extra coin over a Billings/Worpel type. He’s got good role security, especially while Blakely is also out and been pretty durable over the years. His body may have even benefited from not being in the middle the last few years so age may be less of a factor.
From a quick look over the past years when he’s had 20 something possessions he’s scored well so it’s been the quiet games fwd that has brought his average down, which theoretically gives him a discount if he doesn’t spend anywhere near as much time fwd with Hogan/Lobb there.
Essentially I think the stars have aligned nicely for him but guess we’ll have a better idea after JLT2.
If you have any stats on him @Connoisseur i would love to see them. I’d be interested to see how he goes when he has X amount of contested possession and when he hits X amount of possessions.
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He had an even bigger split post R5 of last year. This is his consistency over the past two seasons
2017 averages :
Rounds 1-5: 69.4
Rounds 6-14: 107.6
Rounds 15-18: 71.5
Rounds 19-23: 109
2018 averages:
Round 1: 133
Rounds 2-11: 62.6
dropped in Round 12
Rounds 13-23 : 93.4
He is completely unpredictable
Also 2015 average of 84.3 and a 2016 average of 74.9
A risky pick that could pay off but a big risk. The question is not just “will he improve” but are you willing to put yourself in a position where an inconsistent player can start his year poorly and you are very conflicted as to whether to keep him or trade him
2017 averages :
Rounds 1-5: 69.4
Rounds 6-14: 107.6
Rounds 15-18: 71.5
Rounds 19-23: 109
2018 averages:
Round 1: 133
Rounds 2-11: 62.6
dropped in Round 12
Rounds 13-23 : 93.4
He is completely unpredictable
Also 2015 average of 84.3 and a 2016 average of 74.9
A risky pick that could pay off but a big risk. The question is not just “will he improve” but are you willing to put yourself in a position where an inconsistent player can start his year poorly and you are very conflicted as to whether to keep him or trade him
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You could go back over a lot of players’ early years scoring and do your head in picking out certain scoring periods. Robbie Gray took about 7 seasons to become a reliable starter for example.
Then you are presenting scores from his first two seasons as though any players’ first two seasons reflect their 5th or 6th?
The key thing is his ceiling is not yet known
From the stats you’ve shown me the key for me is 93 over the last 11 rounds last year.
Then you are presenting scores from his first two seasons as though any players’ first two seasons reflect their 5th or 6th?
The key thing is his ceiling is not yet known
From the stats you’ve shown me the key for me is 93 over the last 11 rounds last year.
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D Mundy:
2018:
Disposals: 22.45
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 23: 107.75 from 8 (low of 90 and a high of 130, 2/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 23: 89.21 from 14 (low of 53 and a high of 123, 9/14 below 100, 1/14 120+)
Contested Possessions: 10.45
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 11: 101.67 from 9 (low of 83 and a high of 123, 4/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 11: 92 from 13 (low of 53 and a high of 130, 7/13 below 100, 1/13 120+)
Tackles: 4.14
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 5: 104.29 from 7 (low of 83 and a high of 130, 3/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 5: 92.07 from 15 (low of 53 and a high of 123, 8/15 below 100, 1/15 120+)
Time on Ground%: 83.95%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 84%: 91.33 from 12 (low of 53 and a high of 123, 7/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
SC Avg when time on ground below 84%: 101.5 from 10 (low of 79 and a high of 130, 4/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
Premium career stat averages (90+ avg):
Disposals:
2010: 22.6
2011: 23.75
2013: 24.05
2014: 24.5
2015: 26.86
2016: 23.67
2018: 22.45
Contested Possessions:
2010: 9.25
2011: 11.58
2013: 11.47
2014: 11.55
2015: 13.14
2016: 11.06
2018: 10.45
Tackles:
2010: 4.85
2011: 5.67
2013: 5.32
2014: 4.5
2015: 5.48
2016: 4.61
2018: 4.14
Time on Ground %:
2010: 76.8%
2011: 77.92%
2013: 77.26%
2014: 78.36%
2015: 80.52%
2016: 81.67%
2018: 83.95%
Decreasing disposals and contested averages and TOG increasing is likely attributed to spending more time in the forward line and a move back to a predominantly midfield role should be extremely beneficial for D Mundy.
If he starts the year primarily in the midfield and with their opening fixture featuring 6 of their first 10 matches or 6/11 pre bye at Optus he should be a great starting selection.
Domain Stadium: 104.25 from 63 (20/63 below 100, 18/63 120+)
2010: 92.83 from 12 (6/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)
2011: 103 from 6 (1/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)
2013: 107.91 from 11 (3/11 below 100, 4/11 120+)
2014: 103.25 from 12 (4/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)
2015: 115.92 from 12 (1/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)
2016: 101.9 from 10 (5/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
Optus Stadium: 103.08 from 13 (5/13 below 100, 2/13 120+)
Interstate: 97.28 from 58 (32/58 below 100, 7/58 120+)
2010: 94.88 from 8
2011: 111.17 from 6
2013: 98 from 8
2014: 100.9 from 10
2015: 110.33 from 9
2016: 82.38 from 8
2018: 85.67 from 9
Domain Stadium Wins: 105.30 from 46 (12/46 below 100, 16/46 120+)
2010: 96.44 from 9
2011: 89 from 3
2013: 109.6 from 10
2014: 102.64 from 11
2015: 116.4 from 10
2016: 106.67 from 3
Optus Stadium Wins: 112.14 from 7 (1/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)
Domain Stadium Losses: 101.41 from 17 (8/17 below 100, 2/17 120+)
2010: 82 from 3
2011: 117 from 3
2013: 91 from 1
2014: 110 from 1
2015: 113.5 from 2
2016: 99.86 from 7
Optus Stadium Losses: 92.5 from 6 (4/6 below 100)
2018:
Disposals: 22.45
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 23: 107.75 from 8 (low of 90 and a high of 130, 2/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 23: 89.21 from 14 (low of 53 and a high of 123, 9/14 below 100, 1/14 120+)
Contested Possessions: 10.45
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 11: 101.67 from 9 (low of 83 and a high of 123, 4/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 11: 92 from 13 (low of 53 and a high of 130, 7/13 below 100, 1/13 120+)
Tackles: 4.14
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 5: 104.29 from 7 (low of 83 and a high of 130, 3/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 5: 92.07 from 15 (low of 53 and a high of 123, 8/15 below 100, 1/15 120+)
Time on Ground%: 83.95%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 84%: 91.33 from 12 (low of 53 and a high of 123, 7/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
SC Avg when time on ground below 84%: 101.5 from 10 (low of 79 and a high of 130, 4/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
Premium career stat averages (90+ avg):
Disposals:
2010: 22.6
2011: 23.75
2013: 24.05
2014: 24.5
2015: 26.86
2016: 23.67
2018: 22.45
Contested Possessions:
2010: 9.25
2011: 11.58
2013: 11.47
2014: 11.55
2015: 13.14
2016: 11.06
2018: 10.45
Tackles:
2010: 4.85
2011: 5.67
2013: 5.32
2014: 4.5
2015: 5.48
2016: 4.61
2018: 4.14
Time on Ground %:
2010: 76.8%
2011: 77.92%
2013: 77.26%
2014: 78.36%
2015: 80.52%
2016: 81.67%
2018: 83.95%
Decreasing disposals and contested averages and TOG increasing is likely attributed to spending more time in the forward line and a move back to a predominantly midfield role should be extremely beneficial for D Mundy.
If he starts the year primarily in the midfield and with their opening fixture featuring 6 of their first 10 matches or 6/11 pre bye at Optus he should be a great starting selection.
Domain Stadium: 104.25 from 63 (20/63 below 100, 18/63 120+)
2010: 92.83 from 12 (6/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)
2011: 103 from 6 (1/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)
2013: 107.91 from 11 (3/11 below 100, 4/11 120+)
2014: 103.25 from 12 (4/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)
2015: 115.92 from 12 (1/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)
2016: 101.9 from 10 (5/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
Optus Stadium: 103.08 from 13 (5/13 below 100, 2/13 120+)
Interstate: 97.28 from 58 (32/58 below 100, 7/58 120+)
2010: 94.88 from 8
2011: 111.17 from 6
2013: 98 from 8
2014: 100.9 from 10
2015: 110.33 from 9
2016: 82.38 from 8
2018: 85.67 from 9
Domain Stadium Wins: 105.30 from 46 (12/46 below 100, 16/46 120+)
2010: 96.44 from 9
2011: 89 from 3
2013: 109.6 from 10
2014: 102.64 from 11
2015: 116.4 from 10
2016: 106.67 from 3
Optus Stadium Wins: 112.14 from 7 (1/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)
Domain Stadium Losses: 101.41 from 17 (8/17 below 100, 2/17 120+)
2010: 82 from 3
2011: 117 from 3
2013: 91 from 1
2014: 110 from 1
2015: 113.5 from 2
2016: 99.86 from 7
Optus Stadium Losses: 92.5 from 6 (4/6 below 100)
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Robbie Gray was injured throughout his early years and not a reasonable comparison. Even to say that he was going to turn into the player he did before he did would have definitely been to gamble on unlikely odds, he’s an outlier.
They were his 2nd and 3rd years and they are to show he hasn’t had steady progression, he’s unpredictable.
No other player we can point to has Billing’s inconsistency and unpredictability
You say the 93 is key when the 99 post round 5 of 2017 didn’t amount to anything. He’s not following a normal trajectory for a breakout player
You’re misunderstanding me if you think I’m saying he can’t average above 90, I just think he’s completely unpredictable and will average between 75-105.
The other thing I'm saying is even if he averages 95, there's a decent chance he could start the year averaging 75 in the first 5 weeks. How do you know when to pick him and get his good scores? How do you know not to trade him if he starts poorly?
They were his 2nd and 3rd years and they are to show he hasn’t had steady progression, he’s unpredictable.
No other player we can point to has Billing’s inconsistency and unpredictability
You say the 93 is key when the 99 post round 5 of 2017 didn’t amount to anything. He’s not following a normal trajectory for a breakout player
You’re misunderstanding me if you think I’m saying he can’t average above 90, I just think he’s completely unpredictable and will average between 75-105.
The other thing I'm saying is even if he averages 95, there's a decent chance he could start the year averaging 75 in the first 5 weeks. How do you know when to pick him and get his good scores? How do you know not to trade him if he starts poorly?
Heeney finished last year with only one score above 100 in the last six games, as another comparison. Menegola was up and down until the last 6 games.
If he averages 95 then he’s been a great pick. If it comes at a high SD then he’s like most other forwards.
You’re seeing a glass half empty. I’m seeing it half full because he’s still on his trajectory.
If he averages 95 then he’s been a great pick. If it comes at a high SD then he’s like most other forwards.
You’re seeing a glass half empty. I’m seeing it half full because he’s still on his trajectory.
Brilliant, thx mate. That reads better than expected actually and I’m even more convinced he’s gonna be a safe pick, if things play out like we’re expecting.
The less/more TOG stats make for interesting reading, you would expect that more TOG would usually mean more scoring but as you’ve pointed out, it could mean more time forward instead.
If we see him playing mostly in the midfield JLT2 he’s gonna be as good as locked for me.
The less/more TOG stats make for interesting reading, you would expect that more TOG would usually mean more scoring but as you’ve pointed out, it could mean more time forward instead.
If we see him playing mostly in the midfield JLT2 he’s gonna be as good as locked for me.
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I don't think he's an awful pick, just a risky pick and not a borderline obvious pick.
I think with Heeney you don't have the same extremes in scoring when he has a bad run of form and and he has still stabilised to two years of of a 97 (last year with a concussion that kept him to 18) average. Heeney's average in his last 7 of 2018 was 84, Billings averaged 62 between round 2-11.
It's a risk that can definitely pan out and give you a big leg up, but I don't think he has the history for us to know for sure that if he starts averaging 75 that we know to keep hold of him because we can't be sure he'll come good. The 93 average from Rounds 13-23 isn't nearly enough to make up for the average of 69 from round 1-11.
I also don't think he's as consistent as a key forward, that's more of a week-to-week thing compared to Billings even though they also play a lot according to runs of form.
He still has room to grow as well but I find it hard to know that he will make a big step this year, especially after what happened last year and that culminated in him getting dropped.
The type of player he is also lends itself to some measure of inconsistency. When he was at his best he was a possession gathering half-forward with x-factor, who kind of played with a feel for the game. That type of play is ephemeral compared to a consistent ball winner playing in the midfield. There's been talk of more wing time for two years but it hasn't really eventuated.
I think with Heeney you don't have the same extremes in scoring when he has a bad run of form and and he has still stabilised to two years of of a 97 (last year with a concussion that kept him to 18) average. Heeney's average in his last 7 of 2018 was 84, Billings averaged 62 between round 2-11.
It's a risk that can definitely pan out and give you a big leg up, but I don't think he has the history for us to know for sure that if he starts averaging 75 that we know to keep hold of him because we can't be sure he'll come good. The 93 average from Rounds 13-23 isn't nearly enough to make up for the average of 69 from round 1-11.
I also don't think he's as consistent as a key forward, that's more of a week-to-week thing compared to Billings even though they also play a lot according to runs of form.
He still has room to grow as well but I find it hard to know that he will make a big step this year, especially after what happened last year and that culminated in him getting dropped.
The type of player he is also lends itself to some measure of inconsistency. When he was at his best he was a possession gathering half-forward with x-factor, who kind of played with a feel for the game. That type of play is ephemeral compared to a consistent ball winner playing in the midfield. There's been talk of more wing time for two years but it hasn't really eventuated.
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Good discussion on Billings - I think his role also changed to be more up the ground in the second half of last year. This appears to be the role he’ll get to start this year with Parker up fwd.
I still haven’t decided if I want to take him or not. I don’t see him as one who’ll push 105+ either. If he’s around 90-95, the wait and see approach isn’t the worst route as he shouldn’t increase in price too much.
Has GC first up though so he should score well and not be a headache straight away at least
I still haven’t decided if I want to take him or not. I don’t see him as one who’ll push 105+ either. If he’s around 90-95, the wait and see approach isn’t the worst route as he shouldn’t increase in price too much.
Has GC first up though so he should score well and not be a headache straight away at least
Good discussion on Billings - I think his role also changed to be more up the ground in the second half of last year. This appears to be the role he’ll get to start this year with Parker up fwd.
I still haven’t decided if I want to take him or not. I don’t see him as one who’ll push 105+ either. If he’s around 90-95, the wait and see approach isn’t the worst route as he shouldn’t increase in price too much.
Has GC first up though so he should score well and not be a headache straight away at least
I still haven’t decided if I want to take him or not. I don’t see him as one who’ll push 105+ either. If he’s around 90-95, the wait and see approach isn’t the worst route as he shouldn’t increase in price too much.
Has GC first up though so he should score well and not be a headache straight away at least
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Did some more digging on D Mundy regarding his possession count and contested possessions over the past 3 years.
Since 2016 Mundy has played 61 of a possible 66 games for an average of 92.91 SC and 22.43 disposals.
When Mundy has recorded 20 or more disposals over the past 3 seasons he has averaged 101.24 from 41 matches in comparison to an average of 75.8 from 20 games when he has recorded less than 20 disposals.
In regards to contested possessions Mundy has averaged 10.33 over the past 3 seasons (61 matches) and his average when he records 10 or more contested possessions is 101.31 from 36 matches in comparison to an average of 80.8 from 25 matches when his contested possessions are below 10.
Since 2016 Mundy has played 61 of a possible 66 games for an average of 92.91 SC and 22.43 disposals.
When Mundy has recorded 20 or more disposals over the past 3 seasons he has averaged 101.24 from 41 matches in comparison to an average of 75.8 from 20 games when he has recorded less than 20 disposals.
In regards to contested possessions Mundy has averaged 10.33 over the past 3 seasons (61 matches) and his average when he records 10 or more contested possessions is 101.31 from 36 matches in comparison to an average of 80.8 from 25 matches when his contested possessions are below 10.
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At this stage I’ve locked in Dev Smith at F3 (even though he’s technically F2) despite some concerns over the pick and am tossing up between Menegola, R Gray and Mundy at F4. Probably going to be Robbie at this stage, I’d prefer Menegola but he’d be my 7th player with the same bye now that I’m keen on starting Clay Clay. Don’t like the interrupted preseason on Gray but I’m going to take him for his word when he said he’ll likely play further up the ground this year.