Position Forwards Discussion

Which forwards will you be starting outside of Danger/Heeney? (new poll 4/3/19)

  • Gray $526k

    Votes: 11 8.7%
  • Mundy $521k

    Votes: 17 13.5%
  • Menegola $543k

    Votes: 18 14.3%
  • McLean $514k

    Votes: 6 4.8%
  • Kelly $506k

    Votes: 27 21.4%
  • Boak $477k

    Votes: 11 8.7%
  • Billings $438k

    Votes: 28 22.2%
  • Gresham $430k

    Votes: 3 2.4%
  • Worpel $396k

    Votes: 20 15.9%
  • Greene $354k

    Votes: 33 26.2%

  • Total voters
    126
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Soooo Rowan Marshall...
- 23 years old (generally just below breakout age for rucks)
- Coming off a 12/62 season sharing duties with Hickey.
- Averaging more than any other ruck bar Grundy (Gawn, Goldy, Stef, Nank, Big Boy take a hike)
- Will be ~400k or just under coming into R5.

Biggest lock for a top forward you've ever had the chance to trade in or too good to be true?
I picked him up for 340k so am very happy so far.

I also think realistic expectations are key. We’ve also seen Nank only hit 88-90 in his first year as a sole ruck. Should he tire later in the year, Longer could be brought in for support which could push him back to a sub 80 avg.

I think if you are happy with a 85-90 avg as his basement, worthwhile bringing him in. If he doesn’t quite work out, I have plans to loop with maybe Hoff at F6/F7.

Still a long way to go yet for him. Has Gawn x2, Grundy and Goldy to come. May also need to deal with Kreuzer, Nic Nat. Not getting too excited yet...!
 

Santoz

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I picked him up for 340k so am very happy so far.

I also think realistic expectations are key. We’ve also seen Nank only hit 88-90 in his first year as a sole ruck. Should he tire later in the year, Longer could be brought in for support which could push him back to a sub 80 avg.

I think if you are happy with a 85-90 avg as his basement, worthwhile bringing him in. If he doesn’t quite work out, I have plans to loop with maybe Hoff at F6/F7.

Still a long way to go yet for him. Has Gawn x2, Grundy and Goldy to come. May also need to deal with Kreuzer, Nic Nat. Not getting too excited yet...!
I did the same. What impressed me about him is that he's 23 yo & looking strong enough to match the bigger bodies. He's mobile enough to win enough footy on the ground for himself around the stoppages and his clearance stats are evidence of this. Couple that with the fact the Saints have shelved Longer who they've had at the club for many more years and it speaks volumes IMO for how the selection committee & coach feel about their prospects with him.

We'll see how he manages to last out the year though as you mention.
 
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I did the same. What impressed me about him is that he's 23 yo & looking strong enough to match the bigger bodies. He's mobile enough to win enough footy on the ground for himself around the stoppages and his clearance stats are evidence of this. Couple that with the fact the Saints have shelved Longer who they've had at the club for many more years and it speaks volumes IMO for how the selection committee & coach feel about their prospects with him.

We'll see how he manages to last out the year though as you mention.
Yeah I think Marshall clearly should be the No.1 ruck. There might be a slight risk of a two ruck strategy against the Gawn/Grundy types. Marshall should still be sole ruck this week against Gawn. If he can hold his own, might not need support against Grundy in a few weeks time.

I think this week is the last week to get on so if people are happy with the downside risks, jump on!
 
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Rowan Marshall solo rucking scored 114 this week and the radio guys on SEN said he looked very good.

It was against Bellchambers.

Ironically he is listed as a forward only which is where he played nearly all of last year in his limited amount of games.

He has only played 1 game for that 114 and is priced at $341,100.

Will be a big watch round 3 against Darcy in Perth.
Should’ve brought him in :’(
 

bomberboy

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Yeah I think Marshall clearly should be the No.1 ruck. There might be a slight risk of a two ruck strategy against the Gawn/Grundy types. Marshall should still be sole ruck this week against Gawn. If he can hold his own, might not need support against Grundy in a few weeks time.

I think this week is the last week to get on so if people are happy with the downside risks, jump on!
I'm actually not so convinced that Marshall is going to struggle to score against the elite rucks.

Last year - his HTA% was 24.2.
This year - 28.1.

He's winning ~8 HTA per game compared to ~3 last year - and I'm starting to suspect that as long as Longer is out, he's going to continue to score at a rate that'll see him get to around 500k - which you'd absolutely take, even this week.

Would love some thoughts - but my instinct is that his scores increasing is a combination of getting to more contests, natural improvement and getting more ball around the ground - all which don't seem predicated on the other ruckman as much, but more so keeping his role.
 
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I'm actually not so convinced that Marshall is going to struggle to score against the elite rucks.

Last year - his HTA% was 24.2.
This year - 28.1.

He's winning ~8 HTA per game compared to ~3 last year - and I'm starting to suspect that as long as Longer is out, he's going to continue to score at a rate that'll see him get to around 500k - which you'd absolutely take, even this week.

Would love some thoughts - but my instinct is that his scores increasing is a combination of getting to more contests, natural improvement and getting more ball around the ground - all which don't seem predicated on the other ruckman as much, but more so keeping his role.
The HTA% stat is also dependent on actually winning hitouts :p

AFLStatsPro sets out some good stats on this (see Marshall below). The HOW% (% of hitouts won) is the relevant stat. He dominated against Lobb but has struggled more against better rucks (although even only a 34% HOW against Bellchambers is slightly concerning in hindsight - I didn't look at these stats prior to bringing him in). Only 7% and 30% against Collingwood and Melbourne last year (unclear if that was directly against Grundy/Gawn or not)

1555309790650.png
1555309833005.png

Compare this to the other rucks. Preuss and Gawn are a scary combo this round with their HOW%.....
1555309926803.png

The main thing going for Marshall this year is his follow up work, evident by his Clearances and CP stats (only second to Grundy this year and better than Gawn). Be interesting to see if he can keep those up despite losing more hitouts possibly against Gawn/Preuss. Still did well against McEvoy/Ceglar who both seem to have good HOW% as well.
1555310120965.png
Hope that helps people still tossing up Marshall. I'm reasonably bullish he'll work out personally, don't want to be seen as putting people off. I got him hoping that he can average 100+ until his bye and then will re-assess. I'm not afraid to cash him out if he spikes to $500k+ (although don't want to be getting ahead of myself either, a poor score against Gawn could dent all cash gen)
 

bomberboy

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The HTA% stat is also dependent on actually winning hitouts :p

AFLStatsPro sets out some good stats on this (see Marshall below). The HOW% (% of hitouts won) is the relevant stat. He dominated against Lobb but has struggled more against better rucks (although even only a 34% HOW against Bellchambers is slightly concerning in hindsight - I didn't look at these stats prior to bringing him in). Only 7% and 30% and Collingwood and Melbourne last year (unclear if that was directly against Grundy/Gawn or not)

View attachment 8228
View attachment 8229

Compare this to the other rucks. Preuss and Gawn are a scary combo this round with their HOW%.....
View attachment 8230

The main thing going for Marshall this year is his follow up work, evident by his Clearances and CP stats (only second to Grundy this year and better than Gawn). Be interesting to see if he can keep those up despite losing more hitouts possibly against Gawn/Preuss. Still did well against McEvoy/Ceglar who both seem to have good HOW% as well.
View attachment 8231
Hope that helps people still tossing up Marshall. I'm reasonably bullish he'll work out personally, don't want to be seen as putting people off. I got him hoping that he can average 100+ until his bye and then will re-assess.
Touche.

I dunno, I think people get too scared about the elite rucks sometimes. I'm not entirely sure I'm going to bring him in, but I think that his work around the ground is important.

I will note that his HOW% hasn't changed between 2018 and 2019 ;).
 
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Touche.

I dunno, I think people get too scared about the elite rucks sometimes. I'm not entirely sure I'm going to bring him in, but I think that his work around the ground is important.

I will note that his HOW% hasn't changed between 2018 and 2019 ;).
Yeah, agree. His work around the grounds has been really impressive. It's not quite Grundy good (which it doesn't need to be) but is comparable to S.Martin and Nank's efforts as mobile rucks.

For reference, S.Martin and Nank have career HOW% of 44.2% and 39.6%. Grundy has 46.2%.

Marshall currently at 44% for his career and this season (as shown in the stats above). Yet to be seen how it stacks up going forward. Not sure he's had a proper game ever against Grundy/Gawn as he had low Ruck Contest numbers against Melbourne and Collingwood last year. A lot of unknowns but I think he's worth the punt given his upside of possibly 100+. There is a downside risk though, which you can't ignore (it's rare that picks don't have downside). I thought T.Kelly had no downside but he clearly did (being that he was too good!).
 

bomberboy

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Yeah, agree. His work around the grounds has been really impressive. It's not quite Grundy good (which it doesn't need to be) but is comparable to S.Martin and Nank's efforts as mobile rucks.

For reference, S.Martin and Nank have career HOW% of 44.2% and 39.6%. Grundy has 46.2%.

Marshall currently at 44% for his career and this season (as shown in the stats above). Yet to be seen how it stacks up going forward. Not sure he's had a proper game ever against Grundy/Gawn as he had low Ruck Contest numbers against Melbourne and Collingwood last year. A lot of unknowns but I think he's worth the punt given his upside of possibly 100+. There is a downside risk though, which you can't ignore (it's rare that picks don't have downside). I thought T.Kelly had no downside but he clearly did (being that he was too good!).
If he does top out at 500k, is that a win? Sideways him to any true fallen premium with one trade...

I'm overthinking it again!
 
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If he does top out at 500k, is that a win? Sideways him to any true fallen premium with one trade...

I'm overthinking it again!
That’s for you to decide. It’s a win for me having got him at $340k.

I’ll be doing it if needed to generate some cash. Eg: $500k Marshall down to a Hoff type at $400k. Might avg the same on the run home given regressions.
 

Juzzo

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I'm getting Jeremy Cameron this week. Still 4% ownership & under 500k. Below is his run coming into the bye round.
View attachment 8225
Haha, was thinking I might do the same. Can go beserk as we have seen recently and once or twice last year. His game count hasn't been great over the past couple of years. I'm not a religious bloke, but coming into Easter you could do worse than importing JC.
 
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Jeremy Cameron is a no for mine.

Injury prone
Gives away bulk free kicks
Key forward
Has never had a 90+ average season
49 goals in 18 games for a 71.1 season (wow)
45 goals in 18 games for an 89 season
43 goals in 16 games for a 81.2 season

Has had the following games over the past 3 years:
11 touches, 9 marks, 3.1 = 46sc
13 touches, 5 marks, 3 tackles, 2.3 = 73sc
11 touches, 5 marks, 4.1 = 56sc
14 touches, 5 marks, 5.1 = 83sc
15 touches, 5 marks, 4.1 = 74sc

13 of last 58 games over 100sc

20 of last 58 games under 70sc
 
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