For those looking at Caleb Daniel
Note; Suckling is listed as 2-4 weeks and has had a set back.
In the last 3 weeks, Suckling spent rounds 3 and 4 pushing up the ground more on the wing and didn't play in round 5.
In those 3 weeks, Daniel took the majority of the kick ins and and played on quite a bit. In his most recent game he had 31 disposals with just 24 possessions and seems to have significantly benefited from Suckling either moving up the ground or not playing.
This is important as Daniel will likely score well for the next 2-4 weeks with Suckling out, but also that when Suckling is back his role may be slightly effected depending on what Bevo does with Suckling, Daniel and JJ in his defensive plans.
Great post, thanks for flagging.
Do any Dogs fans have a view on Daniel's likely role and scoring going forward?
I plan to bring in Daniel tonight, but haven't seen him play recently.
Some snippets I dug up that might help those deciding:
- Daniel has consistently been named on the back flank this year.
- Suckling has been named on the other back flank when he has played.
- JJ has been named on the wing when he has played. [I know some teams make the positions up, but I see it as a mild positive that it is consistent.]
- Since round three, Daniel has scored 96, 93 and 100. These are okay scores, but actually a bit below both his average YTD (103, he scored 104 and 120 in the first two rounds), and his average through the last four games of last year after he moved down back (102).
- Equally if you took the kick ins out of those recent scores, he would presumably be lower again (the question is perhaps whether you think there's an o***et, which drove his even better scores in round 1 and 2).
- last year his disposals and possessions were almost the same both across the year (417 vs 420) and in the last four rounds playing as a defender (3 more disposals than possessions). This suggests few kick ins in my view (a kick in potentially being a disposal but not a possession).
- year to date, his disposals have exceeded his possessions by 4, 0, 6, 4 and 7. That's an average of 6 over the last three rounds and 2 beforehand. So he's potentially averaging c. 4 more kick ins in recent weeks.
- over that same period, his DT has gone from 86.5 to 97. His marks have been up but his tackles came down.
My preliminary conclusion is that the kick ins have helped Daniel recently, but that he may have had o***ets in his role from rounds 1 and 2 that mean that that may not be a huge headwind to his scores if Suckling comes back and Daniel stops taking them.
My broader concern would be that Beveridge mucks around with his role and puts him back forward, but he does seem to be doing very well as a defender, and Beveridge may have started to play his players (eg Libba, Bont?) in their best roles a bit more consistently of late.
I may be reading a bit much into small samples though - I'd be keen to hear if anyone has a view!
