Position Forwards Discussion

Which forwards will you be starting outside of Danger/Heeney? (new poll 4/3/19)

  • Gray $526k

    Votes: 11 8.6%
  • Mundy $521k

    Votes: 17 13.3%
  • Menegola $543k

    Votes: 18 14.1%
  • McLean $514k

    Votes: 6 4.7%
  • Kelly $506k

    Votes: 28 21.9%
  • Boak $477k

    Votes: 11 8.6%
  • Billings $438k

    Votes: 29 22.7%
  • Gresham $430k

    Votes: 3 2.3%
  • Worpel $396k

    Votes: 20 15.6%
  • Greene $354k

    Votes: 33 25.8%

  • Total voters
    128

Bomber18

Moderator
Joined
11 Nov 2012
Messages
13,743
Likes
5,178
AFL Club
Essendon
An interesting comparison ... averaged 113 for the first 5, and 81 after that.
That sort of break down in avg essentially highlights my point that he might require a trade out.

Gawn and Grundy games will really determine his success.

They also come at unfortunate timings for him in trying to get that spike in price.

Gawn/Preuss (possible <70), Jacobs, Mummy, NN/Vardy, Grundy (possible <80) Kreuzer then his bye. Price may stall.
 

Darkie

Vice Captain
Joined
12 Apr 2014
Messages
5,825
Likes
2,865
AFL Club
Collingwood
That sort of break down in avg essentially highlights my point that he might require a trade out.

Gawn and Grundy games will really determine his success.

They also come at unfortunate timings for him in trying to get that spike in price.

Gawn/Preuss (possible <70), Jacobs, Mummy, NN/Vardy, Grundy (possible <80) Kreuzer then his bye. Price may stall.
I think you're in a great spot, in that you got him cheaper and have already received a good score from last round.

Personally I struggle with the idea that someone with 16 games of experience, and never more than 3 in a row, is going to score at keeper level until the end of the year.

I may well be wrong, but he'd be a high conviction pass from me.
 

McLovin

Rising Star Winner
Joined
19 Feb 2017
Messages
570
Likes
361
AFL Club
Brisbane
Stefan Martin also became an elite keeper literally at the click of a finger
He also didn't get there easily, he was probably on the way out at the Lions when he turned it around. He was also 26 or 27 at the time and would have to be one of the all-round fittest players in the league.
 

stephen

400 Games Club
Joined
20 May 2014
Messages
2,349
Likes
1,653
AFL Club
St Kilda
I think you're in a great spot, in that you got him cheaper and have already received a good score from last round.

Personally I struggle with the idea that someone with 16 games of experience, and never more than 3 in a row, is going to score at keeper level until the end of the year.

I may well be wrong, but he'd be a high conviction pass from me.
I am quite keen on Marshall but will probably have to skip him due to the arrival of ROB so I am buoyed by reading this and will happily say he was a high conviction pass for me too, if he doesn't quite make it. If he does, I can always blame you for putting me off him.
 

kakarot

200 Games Club
Joined
6 May 2013
Messages
1,208
Likes
108
AFL Club
Carlton
I am quite keen on Marshall but will probably have to skip him due to the arrival of ROB so I am buoyed by reading this and will happily say he was a high conviction pass for me too, if he doesn't quite make it. If he does, I can always blame you for putting me off him.
And I can blame both of you, even if I'd already made up my mind not long after lockout to skip him anyway :p
 
Joined
8 Feb 2018
Messages
612
Likes
628
Is everyone still targeting the Gray,Mengola,Darling,Hogan,Smith,Buddy types that were top forwards last year or looking at the ‘up and comers’ like Daniel,Billings,Worpel?

The latter guys could be real cheap but not sure if that’s for a reason.
 
Joined
25 Jul 2012
Messages
14,320
Likes
7,765
AFL Club
Collingwood
Is everyone still targeting the Gray,Mengola,Darling,Hogan,Smith,Buddy types that were top forwards last year or looking at the ‘up and comers’ like Daniel,Billings,Worpel?

The latter guys could be real cheap but not sure if that’s for a reason.
fwiw

after next week I will have :-

Danger , Heeney , Gray , Darling (started all 4) + Daniel & Kelly

Moore and Bines on the bench

may do ROB -> Buddy or Westhoff down the track
 

Beg2Differ

Rising Star Winner
Joined
22 Oct 2014
Messages
745
Likes
1,049
AFL Club
North Melb.
Outside of Danger it is really hard to see too many forwards that will average 100+ this year. I think maybe Heeney, Boak (with his good start) and maybe TKelly feel like they could but all the rest seem like types that will have several down games through the year. We might just have to live with that in the forward line this year.
 

Nathan

Best and Fairest
Joined
28 Dec 2012
Messages
3,429
Likes
1,088
Is everyone still targeting the Gray,Mengola,Darling,Hogan,Smith,Buddy types that were top forwards last year or looking at the ‘up and comers’ like Daniel,Billings,Worpel?

The latter guys could be real cheap but not sure if that’s for a reason.
Heeney, Boak & Telly are my targets. I have Danger, Worpel and unfortunately Westhoff who I’ll just hold until i’m upgraded.
 

Ormos

Draftee
Joined
5 Feb 2014
Messages
75
Likes
130
AFL Club
Geelong
Currently - Danger, Billings, Daniel, Worpel as my keepers. Likely Telly next round with Heeney or Boak for final spot around bye time
 

quite ironic

100 Games Club
Joined
9 Mar 2014
Messages
3,135
Likes
4,177
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
For those looking at Caleb Daniel

Note; Suckling is listed as 2-4 weeks and has had a set back.

In the last 3 weeks, Suckling spent rounds 3 and 4 pushing up the ground more on the wing and didn't play in round 5.

In those 3 weeks, Daniel took the majority of the kick ins and and played on quite a bit. In his most recent game he had 31 disposals with just 24 possessions and seems to have significantly benefited from Suckling either moving up the ground or not playing.


This is important as Daniel will likely score well for the next 2-4 weeks with Suckling out, but also that when Suckling is back his role may be slightly effected depending on what Bevo does with Suckling, Daniel and JJ in his defensive plans.
 

Darkie

Vice Captain
Joined
12 Apr 2014
Messages
5,825
Likes
2,865
AFL Club
Collingwood
For those looking at Caleb Daniel

Note; Suckling is listed as 2-4 weeks and has had a set back.

In the last 3 weeks, Suckling spent rounds 3 and 4 pushing up the ground more on the wing and didn't play in round 5.

In those 3 weeks, Daniel took the majority of the kick ins and and played on quite a bit. In his most recent game he had 31 disposals with just 24 possessions and seems to have significantly benefited from Suckling either moving up the ground or not playing.


This is important as Daniel will likely score well for the next 2-4 weeks with Suckling out, but also that when Suckling is back his role may be slightly effected depending on what Bevo does with Suckling, Daniel and JJ in his defensive plans.
Great post, thanks for flagging.

Do any Dogs fans have a view on Daniel's likely role and scoring going forward?

I plan to bring in Daniel tonight, but haven't seen him play recently.

Some snippets I dug up that might help those deciding:

- Daniel has consistently been named on the back flank this year.

- Suckling has been named on the other back flank when he has played.

- JJ has been named on the wing when he has played. [I know some teams make the positions up, but I see it as a mild positive that it is consistent.]

- Since round three, Daniel has scored 96, 93 and 100. These are okay scores, but actually a bit below both his average YTD (103, he scored 104 and 120 in the first two rounds), and his average through the last four games of last year after he moved down back (102).

- Equally if you took the kick ins out of those recent scores, he would presumably be lower again (the question is perhaps whether you think there's an offset, which drove his even better scores in round 1 and 2).

- last year his disposals and possessions were almost the same both across the year (417 vs 420) and in the last four rounds playing as a defender (3 more disposals than possessions). This suggests few kick ins in my view (a kick in potentially being a disposal but not a possession).

- year to date, his disposals have exceeded his possessions by 4, 0, 6, 4 and 7. That's an average of 6 over the last three rounds and 2 beforehand. So he's potentially averaging c. 4 more kick ins in recent weeks.

- over that same period, his DT has gone from 86.5 to 97. His marks have been up but his tackles came down.

My preliminary conclusion is that the kick ins have helped Daniel recently, but that he may have had offsets in his role from rounds 1 and 2 that mean that that may not be a huge headwind to his scores if Suckling comes back and Daniel stops taking them.

My broader concern would be that Beveridge mucks around with his role and puts him back forward, but he does seem to be doing very well as a defender, and Beveridge may have started to play his players (eg Libba, Bont?) in their best roles a bit more consistently of late.

I may be reading a bit much into small samples though - I'd be keen to hear if anyone has a view!
 

Juzzo

400 Games Club
Joined
16 Jun 2013
Messages
2,634
Likes
1,301
AFL Club
Adelaide
For those looking at Caleb Daniel

Note; Suckling is listed as 2-4 weeks and has had a set back.

In the last 3 weeks, Suckling spent rounds 3 and 4 pushing up the ground more on the wing and didn't play in round 5.

In those 3 weeks, Daniel took the majority of the kick ins and and played on quite a bit. In his most recent game he had 31 disposals with just 24 possessions and seems to have significantly benefited from Suckling either moving up the ground or not playing.


This is important as Daniel will likely score well for the next 2-4 weeks with Suckling out, but also that when Suckling is back his role may be slightly effected depending on what Bevo does with Suckling, Daniel and JJ in his defensive plans.
I did check this out when I traded in Daniel last week. Just going by raw supercoach scores it looks like Daniel is not really affected by Suckers, and probably not Johannisen. I hope not anyway! :)

wbdef.png
 

BlueNwhiteHoops

Well-known member
Joined
13 Dec 2018
Messages
467
Likes
673
AFL Club
Geelong
For those looking at Caleb Daniel

Note; Suckling is listed as 2-4 weeks and has had a set back.

In the last 3 weeks, Suckling spent rounds 3 and 4 pushing up the ground more on the wing and didn't play in round 5.

In those 3 weeks, Daniel took the majority of the kick ins and and played on quite a bit. In his most recent game he had 31 disposals with just 24 possessions and seems to have significantly benefited from Suckling either moving up the ground or not playing.


This is important as Daniel will likely score well for the next 2-4 weeks with Suckling out, but also that when Suckling is back his role may be slightly effected depending on what Bevo does with Suckling, Daniel and JJ in his defensive plans.
Don't think this matters at all tbh, Daniel scored higher over the first 3 rounds than the last 3.
JJ came in and had no impact on him, i expect little to change, they like getting the ball into his hands and he gets a lot of it.

Bevo has said that the defensive mis-matches will happen from time to time and it doesn't matter whether it's Daniel or someone else, I think that was the only real concern concerning his role.
 

toxic

Rising Star Winner
Joined
6 Jun 2013
Messages
903
Likes
646
Darling...

Trading out yes

Who to bring in
Budget is $494k
TKelly seems the obvious right choice
Buddy, God I want too but

Any others with a decent ceiling?
 

Blaze

400 Games Club
Joined
7 Apr 2012
Messages
2,078
Likes
636
AFL Club
Adelaide
Darling...

Trading out yes

Who to bring in
Budget is $494k
TKelly seems the obvious right choice
Buddy, God I want too but

Any others with a decent ceiling?
Greene probably has the ceiling but super risky bringing him in without having a look for a few weeks. Kelly seems safe even if you cop a tag game this week. I must say buddy is on my never again list and swans decline can't help him in my view
 
Top