Position Forwards Discussion
- Thread starter IDIG
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Yeah Devon won’t start for me. I think his ceiling will be limited to around 95 again which doesn’t make him a terrible pick but means he has no upside.
Conversely, Heeney/Gray could push 100+ this year with the right role so do have some upside.
Would rather try pick a $430k player to average 90-95. TLynch that guy for me ATM.
Conversely, Heeney/Gray could push 100+ this year with the right role so do have some upside.
Would rather try pick a $430k player to average 90-95. TLynch that guy for me ATM.
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I'm really coming around to picking Tom Lynch (tigers), I don't normally like KPP's but the fact that he now gets put in a really good team is huge. Here at the top 10 true forwards in SC from last year:
Hawkins
Franklin
McDonald
Gunston
Breust
J Riewoldt
Hogan
De Goey
Darling
Caddy
Every one of them played for a top 8 side. I understand that a lot of bottom tier sides have bad forwards and that's a big reason why they are not successful but I feel like there is definitely some truth going the other way.
The fact that Lynch could average 93 in 2016 in a side who struggled to get him the ball and where he was incessantly double teamed makes me think he could easily average 95+ next year. Pretty cheap compared to some other mid priced players as well. He was also injury affected in 2017 and 2018 and seemed to lose his motivation last year. Round 1 against Carlton could see him go ballistic.
Hawkins
Franklin
McDonald
Gunston
Breust
J Riewoldt
Hogan
De Goey
Darling
Caddy
Every one of them played for a top 8 side. I understand that a lot of bottom tier sides have bad forwards and that's a big reason why they are not successful but I feel like there is definitely some truth going the other way.
The fact that Lynch could average 93 in 2016 in a side who struggled to get him the ball and where he was incessantly double teamed makes me think he could easily average 95+ next year. Pretty cheap compared to some other mid priced players as well. He was also injury affected in 2017 and 2018 and seemed to lose his motivation last year. Round 1 against Carlton could see him go ballistic.
Yeah TLynch one I’m considering closely. Think he could thrive with a bit more confidence in his team mates and more inside 50s. Main concern is probably his body - knee issue and had shoulder/back issues the previous year. Not quite as durable as the other KPFs but that risk is factored into his cheaper price.
Makes a lot of sense as a potentially underpriced F4 and sits in my side without much chance of moving outside of injury.
Quality of delivery can’t be understated in its value to KPFs and he’ll likely get 10 fold of that in comparison to his time at GC. I’m just a bit worried the spoils will be split a bit too often between him and JRoo and they’ll both fall somewhere in that 80-90 no mans land.
Still probably the best 400ish pick on offer all things considered IMO.
Quality of delivery can’t be understated in its value to KPFs and he’ll likely get 10 fold of that in comparison to his time at GC. I’m just a bit worried the spoils will be split a bit too often between him and JRoo and they’ll both fall somewhere in that 80-90 no mans land.
Still probably the best 400ish pick on offer all things considered IMO.
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I probably shouldn't say he could "easily" average 95+ because the best average of his career is still 93. The injury issues are a proper concern but I feel like he's worth the gamble at 425k.
I think he will get less targets than he did at the Gold Coast simply because they were incredibly Lynch-centric but the targets he get will be better quality and without two defenders hanging off him and sometimes without the best defender (who will at times go to JRoo). Even though they can take points off each other I think we've seen that it can also help. Last year we saw Hogan and McDonald and Breust and Gunston do well together and in 2017 Hooker's presence in the forward line helped Daniher, and Adelaide's forwards all seemed to do well in each others presence in 2017, as did Hawthorn's in the past. Basically I think high level forwards can free each other up.
I think he will get less targets than he did at the Gold Coast simply because they were incredibly Lynch-centric but the targets he get will be better quality and without two defenders hanging off him and sometimes without the best defender (who will at times go to JRoo). Even though they can take points off each other I think we've seen that it can also help. Last year we saw Hogan and McDonald and Breust and Gunston do well together and in 2017 Hooker's presence in the forward line helped Daniher, and Adelaide's forwards all seemed to do well in each others presence in 2017, as did Hawthorn's in the past. Basically I think high level forwards can free each other up.
A good question. I don't think the sample size of (key) forwards moving mid career recently is overly large, but I found a few:
Buddy - jumped from 90 to 100 in his first year at the Swans. Never got back to his Hawthorn highs, and hasn't exceeded his first year Swans average (100 rounded in 2018 as well) ... so you couldn't really say he took time to adjust, if anything quite the opposite.
Tippett - had his career best year when he moved, albeit he went close to this a number of other times, both before and after.
Dixon - a tricky one. Averaged 91 in 2013, then three years of high 60s, including his first year at Port (2016). Then jumped to 91 again - was he playing the same role in 2016 and 2017? Hard to tell from the numbers, given he seemed to get better at everything, but I'd say it was similar. You could argue he potentially took time to get settled in, although his role seemingly changed in 2018 (more ruck, like 2013), so it's possible that his good scoring in year two at Port was a spike, or driven by better fitness, etc, rather than by progressively adjusting to a new club.
Betts - not sure you'd call him a key forward, but he certainly kicks plenty of goals and is another that moved mid career. Was an 80s player from 2010-12, then dipped to 67 in 2013. Moved in 2014 and bounced back to 79, then went 86 and 88 for his two best years. Had a good recovery in his first year at Adelaide, but got better again after that.
Ryder - a little like Betts (just taller!) in that he's obviously not a traditional key forward. His scoring has been up and down every season he's played since 2011 (which means he is due a good one!) but I think the goings-on at Essendon, playing a year at Port and then being banned, and the return from that time out, probably mean there is too much going on to read a lot into his scoring. Certainly didn't hit the ground running, but probably had a fair explanation for that.
Buddy - jumped from 90 to 100 in his first year at the Swans. Never got back to his Hawthorn highs, and hasn't exceeded his first year Swans average (100 rounded in 2018 as well) ... so you couldn't really say he took time to adjust, if anything quite the opposite.
Tippett - had his career best year when he moved, albeit he went close to this a number of other times, both before and after.
Dixon - a tricky one. Averaged 91 in 2013, then three years of high 60s, including his first year at Port (2016). Then jumped to 91 again - was he playing the same role in 2016 and 2017? Hard to tell from the numbers, given he seemed to get better at everything, but I'd say it was similar. You could argue he potentially took time to get settled in, although his role seemingly changed in 2018 (more ruck, like 2013), so it's possible that his good scoring in year two at Port was a spike, or driven by better fitness, etc, rather than by progressively adjusting to a new club.
Betts - not sure you'd call him a key forward, but he certainly kicks plenty of goals and is another that moved mid career. Was an 80s player from 2010-12, then dipped to 67 in 2013. Moved in 2014 and bounced back to 79, then went 86 and 88 for his two best years. Had a good recovery in his first year at Adelaide, but got better again after that.
Ryder - a little like Betts (just taller!) in that he's obviously not a traditional key forward. His scoring has been up and down every season he's played since 2011 (which means he is due a good one!) but I think the goings-on at Essendon, playing a year at Port and then being banned, and the return from that time out, probably mean there is too much going on to read a lot into his scoring. Certainly didn't hit the ground running, but probably had a fair explanation for that.
That's true. The key for me in answering this question is more whether scores increased in year two or three at the new club (vs year one), rather than whether they increased in year one (vs scores at the prior club). Essentially whether we should expect Lynch to immediately jump to what he's capable of in a top 8 side, or whether it takes time to reach those levels.
I think it's also worth considering how Lynch performs in wins vs losses - given we can expect Lynch to feature in quite a few more wins for the year, that will help his scoring.
FWIW, he averages 112 in wins at the Suns in the last 3 years.
I'm not too concerned about him fitting into that side, more so how he comes back from injury. He's got a whole pre-season to learn how to they play.
FWIW, he averages 112 in wins at the Suns in the last 3 years.
I'm not too concerned about him fitting into that side, more so how he comes back from injury. He's got a whole pre-season to learn how to they play.
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If we look at his best year in 2016 here are the final scores in games where he scored below 80.
Round 5, Kangaroos defeats Suns 119-81, Lynch scores 71.
Round 6, Cats defeats Suns 168-148, Lynch scores 69.
Round 8, Giants defeat Suns 149-58, Lynch scores 42.
Round 9, Crows defeat Suns 149-74, Lynch scores 78.
Round 10, Eagles defeat Suns 132-55, Lynch scores 66.
Round 11, Swans defeat Suns 79-41, Lynch scores 37.
Round 22, Magpies defeat Suns 118-47, Lynch scores 77.
His bad scores correlate with bad losses, and this holds true in other seasons, except for recently when he has been playing injured.
Round 5, Kangaroos defeats Suns 119-81, Lynch scores 71.
Round 6, Cats defeats Suns 168-148, Lynch scores 69.
Round 8, Giants defeat Suns 149-58, Lynch scores 42.
Round 9, Crows defeat Suns 149-74, Lynch scores 78.
Round 10, Eagles defeat Suns 132-55, Lynch scores 66.
Round 11, Swans defeat Suns 79-41, Lynch scores 37.
Round 22, Magpies defeat Suns 118-47, Lynch scores 77.
His bad scores correlate with bad losses, and this holds true in other seasons, except for recently when he has been playing injured.
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(For the record, I am undecided about starting Lynch, I'm just putting cases forward)
Lynch won't have 2 or 3 defenders hanging off him as he did at GCS.
But Lynch will have 2 or 3 RIC forwards to share the goal kicking with (Riewoldt, Caddy and maybe Dusty). Lynch was basically the only forward target at the Suns.
BTW, Lynch may have averaged 112pts in wins at the Suns, but that high average was influenced when he played against an inexperienced defence: 2018 Rd2 vs CAR = 180pts and 2017 Rd4 vs CAR = 161pts.
Monday, 7 May 2018
Alex Rance has doubts about whether Richmond should be going after Gold Coast co-captain Tom Lynch as a free agent, arguing that it may unsettle the club's list management and team structure.
"I don't necessarily believe that we should be upsetting the apple cart, to go and chase a big fish ... he (Lynch) is the big tuna," Rance said.
"I think you always have to look at the big picture when it comes to these things."
Roger Vaughan, AAP for AFL.com.au
Lynch won't have 2 or 3 defenders hanging off him as he did at GCS.
But Lynch will have 2 or 3 RIC forwards to share the goal kicking with (Riewoldt, Caddy and maybe Dusty). Lynch was basically the only forward target at the Suns.
BTW, Lynch may have averaged 112pts in wins at the Suns, but that high average was influenced when he played against an inexperienced defence: 2018 Rd2 vs CAR = 180pts and 2017 Rd4 vs CAR = 161pts.
Monday, 7 May 2018
Alex Rance has doubts about whether Richmond should be going after Gold Coast co-captain Tom Lynch as a free agent, arguing that it may unsettle the club's list management and team structure.
"I don't necessarily believe that we should be upsetting the apple cart, to go and chase a big fish ... he (Lynch) is the big tuna," Rance said.
"I think you always have to look at the big picture when it comes to these things."
Roger Vaughan, AAP for AFL.com.au
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It's a fair point, but I imagine that many of us aren't expecting him to score 95 22 times and call it a day. Those spike games will be crucial to averaging 95+ throughout the season.
Arguably, Richmond will help him make more defenses throughout the league look inexperienced!
When was the last time Richmond played 2 genuine key forwards?
Arguably, Richmond will help him make more defenses throughout the league look inexperienced!
When was the last time Richmond played 2 genuine key forwards?