Hey Rows,
Our nightmare season continues with Wallis now ruled out until after bye.
Do we trade him? Or hold again.
I just cannot seem to take a trick.
There is a KP player at GWS I am thinking of bringing in this week. ?
Straight swap?
Also thinking of bringing in another KP in JK as well. Risks I know but after a shocking season .. it seems I have no choice to complete a team.
Hey Slam,
you and I have been riding a similar path all season, here are some of the problems I've had this season. I know you share most, if not all, of these too:
Brayshaw, Heeney, Mills, Darling, Coniglio, English, Milera, Nankervis, M Crouch, D Moore, Rockliff, Liberatore, Dangerfield, Andrews, Oliver, Wallis.
Only 16 problem players!
(not counting deadwood Rookies either! Burgess, Ross, Pierce, Scott, Setterfield)
Crikey, that's 21 Duds! - Now I look at it, I think I've done well to sneak inside the top 30,000!
No wonder I'm running short of trades, and don't look like completing my team!
Enough of my problems, lets look at Wallis.
The first thing to do, is look at how p1ss poor the Fwds have been in general this season.
Let's look at the top 15 PIT60 Fwds averages after Rnd 10.
Wallis is currently 10/83.7 and $431,600. Finlayson is 10/88.8 and $460,400, Greene is 6/77.7 and $371,600.
Finlayson has averaged 103 in his past 3 games, and was averaging 83 before that. Greene is averaging 95 in his past 2. It should be noted, GWS played Melb and Carl in their past 2 games, with both those teams putting absolutely dreadful efforts! Bullies are a Rnd 12 bye, and Giants are a Rnd 14 bye, I'm not sure if that has any influence on your decision or not.
I think a lot depends on how many trades you have already used, how many games you actually think Wallis will miss and what you think Greene/Finlayson will score from here. I will admit, the GWS coming draw still looks friendly-ish.
If we assume Wallis misses 2 games + his bye, and scores at 83 from here, then a PIT60 total for his his last 12 Rounds is 950.
You probably want at least 160 points from that trade to call it a draw, and closer to 185-190+ to call it a win. Assuming your pick misses no games, you are looking for them to score 1140 to call it a win, which is 95/game. The table above shows you how hard that might be, as it is very likely that a good few of the nine current 95+ Fwds won't score 95+ in that period. One of the hard things we are all facing, is that outside the top few, both the Fwds and Defs are a real guessing game this year.
If you believe Greene can stay on the park, and score near his 2017 level, then he is a live option to help you find a value path to finish your team. He still may not, however, turn out to be a winning solution to Wallis, unless he can do that. So what it comes down to is this.
Do you believe Wallis will miss 2, or more than that?
Will Wallis being out, and Greene being in avoid a bye donut, adding to Greene's trade in value?
If you have used more than 14 trades, and won't be forced into a bye donut or two, you might be better placed to ride Wallis out, and find a way to upgrade a Rookie to Greene. If finding an upgrade to Greene doesn't fly, because of cash and down grade problems, and Greene
is helping you avoid bye donuts, then if you have fairly solid faith in him, then go for it.
Remember the old rule, if in doubt, don't trade. But if you looked at it objectively, and it looks good, you won't have those doubts anyway!
Good luck, I hope you get some improvement and fun in the coming weeks.
Given my position, I will probably try and ride Wallis out, even if it equates to a bye donut. If it looks like 2 bye donuts, I may dump him.
