Opinion Player X vs. Player Y

pizza safety

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I understand that midpricers represent value but this year they are coming with a lot of risk. Last year was the year for midpricers
 

Bermi

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I understand that midpricers represent value but this year they are coming with a lot of risk. Last year was the year for midpricers
I was thinking about all the IFs that the WBDs present; Bontempelli, McLean, Dunkley, Macrae, Liberatore, (even Wallis and Johannisen).
But there could be one safer option that I haven't noticed mentioned and that is Hunter.
Last 3 years he played 22, 22 and 21 games, his avg is improving, 95, 82, 102. Ok, the averages don't look that great until you look at his scores for the last 4 games in 2018, 108, 155, 146 and 127. A 105 gamer and only 24yo in 2019, worth considering as a safe choice.
 

pizza safety

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I was thinking about all the IFs that the WBDs present; Bontempelli, McLean, Dunkley, Macrae, Liberatore, (even Wallis and Johannisen).
But there could be one safer option that I haven't noticed mentioned and that is Hunter.
Last 3 years he played 22, 22 and 21 games, his avg is improving, 95, 82, 102. Ok, the averages don't look that great until you look at his scores for the last 4 games in 2018, 108, 155, 146 and 127. A 105 gamer and only 24yo in 2019, worth considering as a safe choice.
Yeah I reckon Dunkley and Macrae are the two best players to start. I reckon Macrae will average really well but he's a bit risky at that price to start but I won't be very surprised at all if he is just as good as this year. I don't mind hunter as a pick, still can get more inside mid time and can definitely tackle more, I grew up knowing him and he was an absolute freak of an athlete.
 

Darkie

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I understand that midpricers represent value but this year they are coming with a lot of risk. Last year was the year for midpricers
What's the difference between the two years (or the two sets of midprice candidates) in your view?

It seems to me like this year's midpricers might be of a slightly different type - more the $300-400k stepping stone than the $400-500k cheap keeper.

I don't see the former as riskier per se, although the latter is more appealing if you can find it.

I think it's quite possible that there are multiple cheap keepers out there, I just don't think they have been identified, or popularised, yet.
 

pizza safety

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What's the difference between the two years (or the two sets of midprice candidates) in your view?

It seems to me like this year's midpricers might be of a slightly different type - more the $300-400k stepping stone than the $400-500k cheap keeper.

I don't see the former as riskier per se, although the latter is more appealing if you can find it.

I think it's quite possible that there are multiple cheap keepers out there, I just don't think they have been identified, or popularised, yet.
I just think that this year we had better options than we do next year. We had Sicily who was massively underpriced against his potential, D Smith who was obviously very good value with a role change and high tackle/cp's numbers when only playing as a forward, Coniglio who was totally underpriced and had gone big in the past, McLean whose last 10 games in 2017 showed that he could become a premium forward. Even Walters was a decent option on paper and would have been alright if it weren't for injuries/suspension and role change. Jake Lloyd was also a defender who many picked because of the lack of true premium options in the back line.

This year I feel like we have Zac Williams as the obvious mid priced choice and nobody else. I don't feel anyone is absolutely screaming break out on any line and other players who might be underpriced will either not make us enough money to pick or can't be picked as keepers (I.e. Crouch, Hanners, Libba).

I like Witherden as a break out player, he did have a nice run of form at the end of the year, he's young and is underpriced due to an injury. I also liked Taranto a lot but unfortunately he's mid only.

I will probably start Wingard along with Witherden and Z Williams as my mid pricers. Interested in Luke Ryan, Milera and Gresham.

I don't rate the Miles, Hall, JJK, T Lynch, Brodie Smith, Roberton or Kreuzer (or other mid priced ruck) picks. Mummy might have been a great pick but if he's not playing R1 I don't think you can start him. Someone suggested trading down to him if he's balling (at R5), thats not a bad idea.

Players in 400-500k bracket are usually better mid pricers because they can progress to become keepers because they are already more developed, players in the 300-400k bracket usually have too much development to do to jump up to become keepers in the same year. However, Injuries can alter this rule.
 
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Ricky Bobby

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I just think that this year we had better options than we do next year. We had Sicily who was massively underpriced against his potential, D Smith who was obviously very good value with a role change and high tackle/cp's numbers when only playing as a forward, Coniglio who was totally underpriced and had gone big in the past, McLean whose last 10 games in 2017 showed that he could become a premium forward. Even Walters was a decent option on paper and would have been alright if it weren't for injuries/suspension and role change. Jake Lloyd was also a defender who many picked because of the lack of true premium options in the back line.

This year I feel like we have Zac Williams as the obvious mid priced choice and nobody else. I don't feel anyone is absolutely screaming break out on any line and other players who might be underpriced will either not make us enough money to pick or can't be picked as keepers (I.e. Crouch, Hanners, Libba).

I like Witherden as a break out player, he did have a nice run of form at the end of the year, he's young and is underpriced due to an injury. I also liked Taranto a lot but unfortunately he's mid only.

I will probably start Wingard along with Witherden and Z Williams as my mid pricers. Interested in Luke Ryan, Milera and Gresham.

I don't rate the Miles, Hall, JJK, T Lynch, Brodie Smith, Roberton or Kreuzer (or other mid priced ruck) picks. Mummy might have been a great pick but if he's not playing R1 I don't think you can start him. Someone suggested trading down to him if he's balling (at R5), thats not a bad idea.

Players in 400-500k bracket are usually better mid pricers because they can progress to become keepers because they are already more developed, players in the 300-400k bracket usually have too much development to do to jump up to become keepers in the same year. However, Injuries can alter this rule.
Very well articulated and reasonably aligned with my current thinking. At the moment the only player I have in the $300k - $500k range is Williams, although I might be interested in sneaking Miles in at M6 if I could make it work. Realistically though, a fit Bennell at M6 would be preferable for me.

Wingard is interesting and I’m not really sure what to think of him at the moment. He could be a viable replacement for Dunkley as I also have my concerns about him being the Billings of 2019.
 

toxic

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I just think that this year we had better options than we do next year. We had Sicily who was massively underpriced against his potential, D Smith who was obviously very good value with a role change and high tackle/cp's numbers when only playing as a forward, Coniglio who was totally underpriced and had gone big in the past, McLean whose last 10 games in 2017 showed that he could become a premium forward. Even Walters was a decent option on paper and would have been alright if it weren't for injuries/suspension and role change. Jake Lloyd was also a defender who many picked because of the lack of true premium options in the back line.

This year I feel like we have Zac Williams as the obvious mid priced choice and nobody else. I don't feel anyone is absolutely screaming break out on any line and other players who might be underpriced will either not make us enough money to pick or can't be picked as keepers (I.e. Crouch, Hanners, Libba).

I like Witherden as a break out player, he did have a nice run of form at the end of the year, he's young and is underpriced due to an injury. I also liked Taranto a lot but unfortunately he's mid only.

I will probably start Wingard along with Witherden and Z Williams as my mid pricers. Interested in Luke Ryan, Milera and Gresham.

I don't rate the Miles, Hall, JJK, T Lynch, Brodie Smith, Roberton or Kreuzer (or other mid priced ruck) picks. Mummy might have been a great pick but if he's not playing R1 I don't think you can start him. Someone suggested trading down to him if he's balling (at R5), thats not a bad idea.

Players in 400-500k bracket are usually better mid pricers because they can progress to become keepers because they are already more developed, players in the 300-400k bracket usually have too much development to do to jump up to become keepers in the same year. However, Injuries can alter this rule.
Your thoughts on Gresham and Blakely
 

pizza safety

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Your thoughts on Gresham and Blakely
I probably don't have the guts to pick Gresham but if we continue to hear more about him playing in the midfield and he does well in the JLT I will consider him more strongly. He's at a pretty decent price and has a fair bit of talent.

We saw Blakely score well in the midfield in 2017 and especially well in the midfield and defence later in the year. This year his scoring in the back line wasn't that good and he seemed to only play in the middle for a couple of games at the end with decent scores. Overall I think he is just a bit injury prone, his role is a bit unclear and I don't see a big enough body of work to want to start him. He's also coming back from a knee injury, I could be wrong but he's not for me.
 

pizza safety

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Very well articulated and reasonably aligned with my current thinking. At the moment the only player I have in the $300k - $500k range is Williams, although I might be interested in sneaking Miles in at M6 if I could make it work. Realistically though, a fit Bennell at M6 would be preferable for me.

Wingard is interesting and I’m not really sure what to think of him at the moment. He could be a viable replacement for Dunkley as I also have my concerns about him being the Billings of 2019.
Cheers mate, I haven't given Miles much thought and I just don't like picking players at the Gold Coast. How well do you think he will score?

It's between Wingard and Gray for me, I think Wingard will play decent midfield minutes despite what he's said and I think Clarko can make him better.

Dunkley probably should not be the Billings of 2019 but you're paying premium price for a player who has really only played premium football for 6-9 games, it would actually be better if his scoring was a little bit worse so that he was a little cheaper and he was therefore less risky. I think Billings is just partially a confidence player and partly a downhill skier and that just set us all up for a bad year. Those uncontested players/small forwards also kind of need things to fall their way. I feel like Dunkley is more of an inside player and just innately more reliable in the way he plays. I probably won't start him but won't be surprised if he's a top 6 forward.
 

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Your thoughts on Gresham and Blakely
I probably don't have the guts to pick Gresham but if we continue to hear more about him playing in the midfield and he does well in the JLT I will consider him more strongly. He's at a pretty decent price and has a fair bit of talent.

We saw Blakely score well in the midfield in 2017 and especially well in the midfield and defence later in the year. This year his scoring in the back line wasn't that good and he seemed to only play in the middle for a couple of games at the end with decent scores. Overall I think he is just a bit injury prone, his role is a bit unclear and I don't see a big enough body of work to want to start him. He's also coming back from a knee injury, I could be wrong but he's not for me.
Don't mind Gresham as a pick but will be very interesting to see how Saints allocate midfield time/rotations between J Billings, J Gresham, D Hannebery, etc.

J Gresham:
2018 Averages:
Disposals: 17.59
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 18: 95.22 from 9 (low of 60 and a high of 131, 5/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 18: 68 from 13 (low of 36 and a high of 121, 12/13 below 100, 1/13 120+)

Contested Possessions: 6.95
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 7: 89.53 from 15 (low of 53 and a high of 131, 10/15 below 100, 2/15 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 7: 56.86 from 7 (low of 36 and a high of 96)

Tackles: 2.5
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 3: 90 from 11 (low of 53 and a high of 131, 8/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 3: 68.27 from 11 (low of 36 and a high of 115, 9/11 below 100)

Goals: 1.59
SC Avg when goals equal/exceed 2: 94.91 from 11 (low of 54 and a high of 131, 6/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
SC Avg when goals below 2: 63.36 from 11 (low of 36 and a high of 87)

In regards to Blakely if he receives sufficient midfield time similar to that he received in 2017 he should be able to push a 95-105 avg.

C Blakely:
2017 Averages
Disposals: 23.88
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 24: 109.55 from 11 (low of 68 and a high of 130, 2/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 24: 51.83 from 6 (low of 7 and a high of 88)

Contested Possessions: 8.35
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 9: 109.6 from 10 (low of 74 and a high of 130, 2/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 9: 60 from 7 (low of 7 and a high of 115, 6/7 below 100)

Blakely recorded a contested possession rate of 34.80% in 2017 which decreased to 23.66% in 2018 due to spending more time in defence/less midfield rotations.
 

pizza safety

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Don't mind Gresham as a pick but will be very interesting to see how Saints allocate midfield time/rotations between J Billings, J Gresham, D Hannebery, etc.

J Gresham:
2018 Averages:
Disposals: 17.59
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 18: 95.22 from 9 (low of 60 and a high of 131, 5/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 18: 68 from 13 (low of 36 and a high of 121, 12/13 below 100, 1/13 120+)

Contested Possessions: 6.95
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 7: 89.53 from 15 (low of 53 and a high of 131, 10/15 below 100, 2/15 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 7: 56.86 from 7 (low of 36 and a high of 96)

Tackles: 2.5
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 3: 90 from 11 (low of 53 and a high of 131, 8/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 3: 68.27 from 11 (low of 36 and a high of 115, 9/11 below 100)

Goals: 1.59
SC Avg when goals equal/exceed 2: 94.91 from 11 (low of 54 and a high of 131, 6/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
SC Avg when goals below 2: 63.36 from 11 (low of 36 and a high of 87)

In regards to Blakely if he receives sufficient midfield time similar to that he received in 2017 he should be able to push a 95-105 avg.

C Blakely:
2017 Averages
Disposals: 23.88
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 24: 109.55 from 11 (low of 68 and a high of 130, 2/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 24: 51.83 from 6 (low of 7 and a high of 88)

Contested Possessions: 8.35
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 9: 109.6 from 10 (low of 74 and a high of 130, 2/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 9: 60 from 7 (low of 7 and a high of 115, 6/7 below 100)

Blakely recorded a contested possession rate of 34.80% in 2017 which decreased to 23.66% in 2018 due to spending more time in defence/less midfield rotations.
Cheers for that. I think Gresham would play a different role to Billings if both were in the midfield, I think Billings can only play on the wing and Gresham can play on the inside, Hanners probably makes it tougher for Gresham to spend time in there. I just don't trust that Ross will play Blakely through the midfield and I also question if he can play 22 games. He's also only played 8 good games in the midfield in his career, six games in a row between rounds 6-11 in 2018 and his last two games this year.

Edit: he actually had a few good games in the midfield in 2016 when he was younger.
 
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Ricky Bobby

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Cheers mate, I haven't given Miles much thought and I just don't like picking players at the Gold Coast. How well do you think he will score?

It's between Wingard and Gray for me, I think Wingard will play decent midfield minutes despite what he's said and I think Clarko can make him better.

Dunkley probably should not be the Billings of 2019 but you're paying premium price for a player who has really only played premium football for 6-9 games, it would actually be better if his scoring was a little bit worse so that he was a little cheaper and he was therefore less risky. I think Billings is just partially a confidence player and partly a downhill skier and that just set us all up for a bad year. Those uncontested players/small forwards also kind of need things to fall their way. I feel like Dunkley is more of an inside player and just innately more reliable in the way he plays. I probably won't start him but won't be surprised if he's a top 6 forward.
Interesting question about Miles. Up until now I have just been working on the basis that he is off to a new club and will get more opportunity in the midfield and this might boost his average by about 5 - 10 points. Given his most recent average was about 90, I figured that this might give him an average of 95-100 and a price target of between $450k to $500k.
Now that I think about it, I’m not sure this is a great proposition. A 100 ave isn’t enough to be a mid keeper and the gain may only be somewhere between $100k - $150k (ok, but not great). Further to this, I have just checked his history and am shocked of see that he only played 1 game last year (score 90) and 5 the year before (ave 70). This increases his risk greatly from my perspective and so I’ll most likely stay away now unless I see some compelling evidence to persuade me otherwise.
 

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I think I'd back in Dusty to average something similar to Kelly after an injury interrupted season. So probably Dusty at the cheaper price
The problem with Dusty is that he has only gone over 108 ave once and that was his Brownlow year. Jelly has done 113 ave past two seasons. Dusty also tends to go missing in action for several games in the past few seasons. Even in his best year her had a four game stretch where he ave 81.5. In 2018 he had two similar stretches. On the other hand Jelly has not done well with a hard tag in a few games last year and he might get the same treatment this year. It is a tricky picking which one IMO.
 

BlueNwhiteHoops

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The problem with Dusty is that he has only gone over 108 ave once and that was his Brownlow year. Jelly has done 113 ave past two seasons. Dusty also tends to go missing in action for several games in the past few seasons. Even in his best year her had a four game stretch where he ave 81.5. In 2018 he had two similar stretches. On the other hand Jelly has not done well with a hard tag in a few games last year and he might get the same treatment this year. It is a tricky picking which one IMO.
He said Kelly not Jelly lol ;) and I do agree with the observations on Martins scoring history. 119 was a spike year I am willing to call. At 27 years of age it wasn't a breakout year obviously and a bloke couldn't have a better single season as a player, I think if you take Martin you're more locking him in for his known durability over anything, then reasonably expecting 106-110 for the season imo.
 

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I just think that this year we had better options than we do next year. We had Sicily who was massively underpriced against his potential, D Smith who was obviously very good value with a role change and high tackle/cp's numbers when only playing as a forward, Coniglio who was totally underpriced and had gone big in the past, McLean whose last 10 games in 2017 showed that he could become a premium forward. Even Walters was a decent option on paper and would have been alright if it weren't for injuries/suspension and role change. Jake Lloyd was also a defender who many picked because of the lack of true premium options in the back line.

This year I feel like we have Zac Williams as the obvious mid priced choice and nobody else. I don't feel anyone is absolutely screaming break out on any line and other players who might be underpriced will either not make us enough money to pick or can't be picked as keepers (I.e. Crouch, Hanners, Libba).

I like Witherden as a break out player, he did have a nice run of form at the end of the year, he's young and is underpriced due to an injury. I also liked Taranto a lot but unfortunately he's mid only.

I will probably start Wingard along with Witherden and Z Williams as my mid pricers. Interested in Luke Ryan, Milera and Gresham.

I don't rate the Miles, Hall, JJK, T Lynch, Brodie Smith, Roberton or Kreuzer (or other mid priced ruck) picks. Mummy might have been a great pick but if he's not playing R1 I don't think you can start him. Someone suggested trading down to him if he's balling (at R5), thats not a bad idea.

Players in 400-500k bracket are usually better mid pricers because they can progress to become keepers because they are already more developed, players in the 300-400k bracket usually have too much development to do to jump up to become keepers in the same year. However, Injuries can alter this rule.
Happy New Year pizza, thanks for your thoughts. I agree with much of this.

My sense is that we did have a number of appealing potential cheap keepers last year, but that we may simply not have found the equivalent players for 2019 yet. There may still be fewer of them than in 2018, but I'm sure there will be a number. I'm conscious that the JLT hasn't started yet, that some of this site's more active members and left field thinkers appear to be busy with the BBL, and that most sides are looking fairly similar at this stage.

I also agree that the $400k+ names are more likely to jump up to keeper status, although personally I think that just means that the $300-400k options should be picked for a different purpose (ie, those who pick them need to know what they're dealing with). Generally I think players in this range are very risky choices if you're backing them to do something they've never done before (ie, breakout picks) but this can be quite different if they are prior high scorers returning from injury or suspension. The latter carry other risks, of course, but the lower price is a significant offset.

On some specific names:

- I agree that Williams looks the easy one. I would like to have seen a bit more from him historically, but the risk/reward appears attractive.
- What do you think Libba, Hanners and Miles will average?
- Witherden looks interesting. I did a review of the 2019 pre season thread recently, and his teammate Andrews actually came up as the most appealing young/mid priced option (ex Williams) from what I saw. Do you have a view on how the rule changes could affect their scoring? I must admit that I didn't watch a lot of Brisbane last year :)
 
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