Player X vs. Player Y

pizza safety

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Interesting question about Miles. Up until now I have just been working on the basis that he is off to a new club and will get more opportunity in the midfield and this might boost his average by about 5 - 10 points. Given his most recent average was about 90, I figured that this might give him an average of 95-100 and a price target of between $450k to $500k.
Now that I think about it, I’m not sure this is a great proposition. A 100 ave isn’t enough to be a mid keeper and the gain may only be somewhere between $100k - $150k (ok, but not great). Further to this, I have just checked his history and am shocked of see that he only played 1 game last year (score 90) and 5 the year before (ave 70). This increases his risk greatly from my perspective and so I’ll most likely stay away now unless I see some compelling evidence to persuade me otherwise.
Agree with you on the last part, even though he will get more opportunity I feel like its hard to trust that he can get back to the scores he was capable of a few years ago
 

pizza safety

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Happy New Year pizza, thanks for your thoughts. I agree with much of this.

My sense is that we did have a number of appealing potential cheap keepers last year, but that we may simply not have found the equivalent players for 2019 yet. There may still be fewer of them than in 2018, but I'm sure there will be a number. I'm conscious that the JLT hasn't started yet, that some of this site's more active members and left field thinkers appear to be busy with the BBL, and that most sides are looking fairly similar at this stage.

I also agree that the $400k+ names are more likely to jump up to keeper status, although personally I think that just means that the $300-400k options should be picked for a different purpose (ie, those who pick them need to know what they're dealing with). Generally I think players in this range are very risky choices if you're backing them to do something they've never done before (ie, breakout picks) but this can be quite different if they are prior high scorers returning from injury or suspension. The latter carry other risks, of course, but the lower price is a significant offset.

On some specific names:

- I agree that Williams looks the easy one. I would like to have seen a bit more from him historically, but the risk/reward appears attractive.
- What do you think Libba, Hanners and Miles will average?
- Witherden looks interesting. I did a review of the 2019 pre season thread recently, and his teammate Andrews actually came up as the most appealing young/mid priced option (ex Williams) from what I saw. Do you have a view on how the rule changes could affect their scoring? I must admit that I didn't watch a lot of Brisbane last year :)
You are definitely right that there could be more mid priced options that reveal themselves but I think all except Devon were already popular picks at this stage last year, I think there's probably less but a couple more could emerge in the next couple of months and JLT. I just think midpricers for midpriced sake is a bit wrong.

I think Hanners will averaged about 75-80, Libba about 80 and Miles about 85. I don't think the bodies of the first two will let them return to their best

I don't mind Andrews as a pick but I'm not the keenest on Key position defenders, they're usually fairly inconsistent and I think their role is unstable. Witherden has gone back to back 87 average in his first two years not including the injured game this year, and also averaged 95 in his last 9 and 98 in his last 6 prior to the injury. I think the kick out rules favour him and he has plenty of room for improvement.

And happy new year to you too!
 
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Darkie

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Interesting question about Miles. Up until now I have just been working on the basis that he is off to a new club and will get more opportunity in the midfield and this might boost his average by about 5 - 10 points. Given his most recent average was about 90, I figured that this might give him an average of 95-100 and a price target of between $450k to $500k.
Now that I think about it, I’m not sure this is a great proposition. A 100 ave isn’t enough to be a mid keeper and the gain may only be somewhere between $100k - $150k (ok, but not great). Further to this, I have just checked his history and am shocked of see that he only played 1 game last year (score 90) and 5 the year before (ave 70). This increases his risk greatly from my perspective and so I’ll most likely stay away now unless I see some compelling evidence to persuade me otherwise.
Just came across something reminding me of your post, so I thought I would flag that Miles didnt miss AFL games last year because of injury, he actually won the best and fairest for the VFL. Some will already be well aware of this, but some may not be.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-11/miles-still-hoping-for-september-to-remember
 
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Bermi

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I'm considering (27yo in 2019) Miles as a stepping stone. Only priced at $342,000, so I am expecting he will surely make a minimum $100,000. The Bye Rd14 may be a good time to upgrade him. I remember reading somewhere that Dew said Miles will be leading the midfield.
 

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Darkie

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You are definitely right that there could be more mid priced options that reveal themselves but I think all except Devon were already popular picks at this stage last year, I think there's probably less but a couple more could emerge in the next couple of months and JLT. I just think midpricers for midpriced sake is a bit wrong.

I think Hanners will averaged about 75-80, Libba about 80 and Miles about 85. I don't think the bodies of the first two will let them return to their best

I don't mind Andrews as a pick but I'm not the keenest on Key position defenders, they're usually fairly inconsistent and I think their role is unstable. Witherden has gone back to back 87 average in his first two years not including the injured game this year, and also averaged 95 in his last 9 and 98 in his last 6 prior to the injury. I think the kick out rules favour him and he has plenty of room for improvement.

And happy new year to you too!
Thanks mate.

I'm a fair bit more optimistic on Hanners and Libba, but I guess that's natural if I have them and you don't. [I am warming to Miles though.]. I think JLT is generally a poor guide for premiums, albeit perhaps not those returning from injury (Libba was smashing it before his injury in 2018). All three should be hungry in the JLT too, so hopefully that should be a decent indication of what they are capable of today.

Re Witherden and Andrews, that makes sense. I posted tonight in the RMT thread an article re Witherden - worth having a look in case you weren't aware of all of that. Sounds like there is upside if he can correct issues with his running, or maybe ongoing injury risk if he doesn't. The kick in changes will likely be important for him one way or another.

Andrews averaged 97 pre his injury (which was a bad concussion and bleeding on the brain, from Jeremy Cameron). He seemed to inexplicably break out in about round four (unstable role?!) and averaged 107 from then until his injury. Would have been number one in the comp for one percenters per game (and maybe TOG) if not for his injury, broke the spoils record against the Swans this year, and became Brisbane vice captain at 21. Seems like an impressive young man. I couldn't pick him in a lineup, but will be watching him closely as a potential replacement for one or more of my midpriced options.
 
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Darkie

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Had to think about this one, but I’ll say Wingard.

Neither is in my top five or so forwards, but I can see the case for both.

Wingard:
- better SC record
- new club, and one where they are short of good midfielders
- some debate about whether he scores better as a forward or mid
- moved to the midfield around the middle of last year based on @bigruss’ comments
- averaged 103 from round 12
- a bit dearer
- would expect him to play c. 20 @ c. 95, with more upside than downside risk

Billings:
- doesn’t always try (which I find outrageous)
- younger, albeit Wingard is only 25
- could potentially benefit from a new midfield coach in Ratten, albeit Hanners is a new addition there and apparently Gresham is getting more mid time too
- performed okay after he got dropped last year, averaged around 93
- was supposed to have a lot of upside in 2018, including from better goal kicking, but continued to kick poorly for goal. I’ve concluded he’s actually just a poor goal kick for some reason (best ever season is 7.6)
- no strong view on his average, but >95 seems possible but less than 50-50 in my view

I should mention that I started Billings last year and held him through his bye. So I have some baggage, albeit I have briefly considered picking him this year (he’s not a “never again” for me). I was pretty convinced that they should have dropped him earlier and I actually wanted them to do that, because I thought he would come good afterwards. He improved to a reasonable degree (he was terrible before that), but averaging 93 after being dropped isn’t great in my view - he still had three 70s and a 60 after that, which is quite underwhelming. Someone commented recently that he may just be a bit soft/a downhill skier. You likely have a much better view than I do, but I can see why people might think that.

I’m not sure that Billings is cheap enough, or has shown enough SC scoring capacity, to justify the risks. On reflection I’m probably warming a little to Wingard as well - so I’ll say Wingard by a decent margin, unless you know something about Billings that I don’t!
 

TopBillings

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Had to think about this one, but I’ll say Wingard.

Neither is in my top five or so forwards, but I can see the case for both.

Wingard:
- better SC record
- new club, and one where they are short of good midfielders
- some debate about whether he scores better as a forward or mid
- moved to the midfield around the middle of last year based on @bigruss’ comments
- averaged 103 from round 12
- a bit dearer
- would expect him to play c. 20 @ c. 95, with more upside than downside risk

Billings:
- doesn’t always try (which I find outrageous)
- younger, albeit Wingard is only 25
- could potentially benefit from a new midfield coach in Ratten, albeit Hanners is a new addition there and apparently Gresham is getting more mid time too
- performed okay after he got dropped last year, averaged around 93
- was supposed to have a lot of upside in 2018, including from better goal kicking, but continued to kick poorly for goal. I’ve concluded he’s actually just a poor goal kick for some reason (best ever season is 7.6)
- no strong view on his average, but >95 seems possible but less than 50-50 in my view

I should mention that I started Billings last year and held him through his bye. So I have some baggage, albeit I have briefly considered picking him this year (he’s not a “never again” for me). I was pretty convinced that they should have dropped him earlier and I actually wanted them to do that, because I thought he would come good afterwards. He improved to a reasonable degree (he was terrible before that), but averaging 93 after being dropped isn’t great in my view - he still had three 70s and a 60 after that, which is quite underwhelming. Someone commented recently that he may just be a bit soft/a downhill skier. You likely have a much better view than I do, but I can see why people might think that.

I’m not sure that Billings is cheap enough, or has shown enough SC scoring capacity, to justify the risks. On reflection I’m probably warming a little to Wingard as well - so I’ll say Wingard by a decent margin, unless you know something about Billings that I don’t!
Thank you for the detailed response.

Just a gut feeling about JB. Looks more confident with Hannebery/Ratten around. Wants to repay the faith after an average 2018.
 

Darkie

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Thank you for the detailed response.

Just a gut feeling about JB. Looks more confident with Hannebery/Ratten around. Wants to repay the faith after an average 2018.
Interesting, thanks.

Do you think he’s the type of person that will be really single-minded about that? My read from the second half of the year is that he mustn’t be (unless he was injured?).
 

TopBillings

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Interesting, thanks.

Do you think he’s the type of person that will be really single-minded about that? My read from the second half of the year is that he mustn’t be (unless he was injured?).
Tough one.

I think Roo/Joey not being on field to direct left a huge hole. Here’s hoping for 95+ avg for JB
 

TopBillings

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Oliver & M.Crouch
Vs
Fyfe & Dusty

Natural improvement/Next gen v Durability/Hunger
 

Manikato1

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Oliver & M.Crouch
Vs
Fyfe & Dusty

Natural improvement/Next gen v Durability/Hunger

Oliver and Crouch for me. Fyfe struggles to stay on the ground for 22 games and I guess only history will tell us if Martin's Brownlow year was just a spike year. I inclined to think spike more than a raising of the bar on a long term basis.
 

TopBillings

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I regard both Fyfe and Dusty as locks. Just behind Danger as first picked. Both still only 27.
Oliver and Crouch for me. Fyfe struggles to stay on the ground for 22 games and I guess only history will tell us if Martin's Brownlow year was just a spike year. I inclined to think spike more than a raising of the bar on a long term basis.
Cheers for the reply lads.

Gut says Fyfe & Dusty they seem to get special service from CD. Don’t wanna miss out on that - when both are fit & firing playing full time mid.

Oliver is my first planned upgrade for Libba. Wanna see how the dynamic of Viney/Brayshaw goes plus his double shoulder operation.

M.Crouch is a value pick IMO, crowbots have one of the easiest draws in 2019.
 

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I've been thinking. When it comes to deciding Players X vs Players Y, it would be good if the Supercoach indicates if they are playing for the $50K or beating their mates in a League Grand Final. As that could influence the Forum's opinion on whom to suggest.
 

TopBillings

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I've been thinking. When it comes to deciding Players X vs Players Y, it would be good if the Supercoach indicates if they are playing for the $50K or beating their mates in a League Grand Final. As that could influence the Forum's opinion on whom to suggest.
League matches are my aim
 
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